2018-04-13

中美貿易爭端引發市場波動 資金換馬內需股避險

近期中美貿易爭端不斷升級,雙方你來我往,導致市場波動大大增加,像去年一般「買入持有,坐等收益」的好景已難重現。騰訊(700.HK)、平安(2318.HK)、吉利(175.HK)這幾支去年領漲大市的強勢股,今年明顯受壓,即便平安超預期的年報亦難以扭轉投資者對後市不明朗的擔憂,而內需、醫療這些較不受貿易戰影響且得到政策支持的板塊獲得資金青睞,成為逆市走升的強勢股。

去年底,市場已經看到內地消費升級的大趨勢,高端市場成為兵家必爭之地。乳業龍頭蒙牛(2319.HK)通過調整產品組合,強化特侖蘇等品牌的高端定位,去年實現扭虧為盈,淨賺20.48億元(人民幣,下同),全年營收首次突破600億元大關,按年增長11.86%,超過年初的指引。毛利率按年上升2.42個百分點至35.21%,經營利潤大增126.2%至33.77億元。值得注意的是,集團收購的奶粉品牌雅士利,去年下半年錄得25%的增長,2018年有望扭虧為盈。蒙牛股價年初至今升逾18%,相信在良好業績憧憬以及貿易戰資金避險的需求下,股價有望進一步走升。

此外,其他內需板塊的龍頭企業也受到資金追捧,比如食品股統一(220.HK)3月底公佈去年純利大增逾四成,末期派息增加四倍;屢次令投資者失望的日用品龍頭恆安(1044.HK)亦拿出不錯的成績單,純利增長近10%,勝預期;另外年初宣佈漲價的啤酒龍頭青島啤酒(168.HK)、華潤啤酒(291.HK)也是資金換馬之選,尤其是華潤啤酒去年純利大增逾八成,啤酒平均價格增長2.7%,反應產品升級已成為集團業績上升的主要動力,加上有消息指華潤正在洽購喜力中國業務,若落實將豐富華潤的產品線,進一步擴展高端市場。

體育品牌方面,安踏(2020.HK)近年透過頻頻收購外資品牌,拓展高端市場,集團去年收入及純利均創歷史新高,主要受Fila及Descente等高端品牌業務迅速增長所帶動,首季非安踏品牌業務銷售額大增80%至85%,反應業務增長的可持續性。安踏去年下半年下半年收購童裝品牌Kingkow,相信有助提升集團於內地童裝的市佔率,成為業務增長的又一助推力。

中美貿易爭端問題一日未有定論,股市料仍將持續波動,但資金未有撤離市場,而是暫時停泊在內需等較少受貿易爭端影響的板塊,不妨依勢而行,選擇龍頭內需股暫時規避風險。

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2018-04-13
2018-03-29
2018-03-23
2018-03-16
2018-03-09
2018-03-02
2018-02-23
2018-02-15
2018-02-09
2018-02-02
2018-01-26
2018-01-19
2018-01-12
2017-12-29
2017-12-15
2017-12-08
2017-12-01
2017-11-24
2017-11-17
2017-11-10
2017-11-03
2017-10-27
2017-10-20
2017-10-13
2017-09-29
2017-09-22
2017-09-15
2017-09-08
2017-09-01
2017-08-25
2017-08-18
2017-08-11
2017-08-04
2017-07-28
2017-07-21
2017-07-14
2017-06-30
2017-06-23
2017-06-16
2017-06-09
2017-06-02
2017-05-26
2017-05-19
2017-05-12
2017-05-05
2017-04-28
2017-04-21
2017-04-13
2017-03-31
2017-03-24
2017-03-17
2017-03-10
2017-03-03
2017-02-24
2017-02-17
2017-02-10
2017-02-03
2017-01-27
2017-01-20
2017-01-13
2016-12-30
2016-12-29
2016-12-16
2016-12-09
2016-12-02
2016-11-25
2016-11-18
2016-11-11
2016-11-04
2016-10-28
2016-10-14
2016-09-30
2016-09-23
2016-09-09
2016-09-02
2016-08-26
2016-08-19
2016-08-12
2016-08-05
2016-07-29
2016-07-22
2016-07-15
2016-06-30
2016-06-24
2016-06-17
2016-06-10
2016-06-03
2016-05-27
2016-05-20
2016-05-13
2016-05-06
2016-04-29
2016-04-22
2016-04-15
2016-04-07
2016-04-01
2016-03-24
2016-03-18
2016-03-11
2016-03-04
2016-02-26
2016-02-19
2016-02-12
2016-02-05
2016-01-29
2016-01-22
2016-01-15
2015-12-31
2015-12-24
2015-12-18
2015-12-11
2015-12-04
2015-11-27
2015-11-20
2015-11-13
2015-11-06
2015-10-30
2015-10-23
2015-10-16
2015-10-02
2015-09-25
2015-09-18
2015-09-11
2015-09-04
2015-08-28
2015-08-14
2015-08-07
2015-07-31
2015-07-24
2015-07-17
2015-07-03
2015-06-26
2015-06-19
2015-06-12
2015-06-05
2015-05-29
2015-05-22
2015-05-15
2015-05-08
2015-04-30
2015-04-24
2015-04-17
2015-04-10
2015-03-27
2015-03-20
2015-03-13
2015-03-06
2015-02-27
2015-02-13
2015-02-06
2015-01-30
2015-01-23
2015-01-16
2015-01-02
2014-12-24
2014-12-19
2014-12-12
2014-12-05
2014-11-28
2014-11-21
2014-11-14
2014-11-07
2014-10-31
2014-10-24
2014-10-17
2014-10-10
2014-09-26
2014-09-12
2014-09-05
2014-08-29
2014-08-22
2014-08-15
2014-08-08
2014-08-01
2014-07-25
2014-07-18
2014-07-11
2014-06-27
2014-06-20
2014-06-13
2014-06-06
2014-05-30
2014-05-23
2014-05-16
2014-05-09
2014-05-02
2014-04-25
2014-04-17
2014-04-11
2014-03-28
2014-03-21
2014-03-14
2014-03-07
2014-02-28
2014-02-21
2014-02-14
2014-02-07
2014-01-30
2014-01-24
2014-01-17
2014-01-10
2014-01-03
2013-12-27
2013-12-20
2013-12-13
2013-12-06
2013-11-29
2013-11-22
2013-11-08
2013-11-01
2013-10-25
2013-10-18
2013-10-11
2013-10-04
2013-09-27
2013-09-19
2013-09-13
2013-09-06
2013-08-30
2013-08-23
2013-08-16
2013-08-09
2013-08-02
2013-07-26
2013-07-19
2013-07-12
2013-06-14
2013-05-31
2013-05-03
2013-04-26
2013-04-19
2013-04-05
2013-03-15
2013-03-08
2013-03-01
2013-02-22
2013-02-15
2013-02-08
2013-02-01
2013-01-25
2013-01-11
2013-01-04
2012-12-28
2012-12-21
2012-12-14
2012-12-02
2012-11-23
2012-11-16
2012-11-09
2012-11-02
2012-10-12
2012-10-05
2012-09-21
2012-09-14
2012-09-07
2012-08-31
2012-08-24
2012-08-10
2012-08-03
2012-07-27
2012-07-20
2012-07-13
2012-07-06
2012-06-29
2012-06-22
2012-06-15
2012-06-08
2012-06-01
2012-05-25
2012-05-18
2012-05-17
2012-05-11
2012-05-04
2012-04-27
2012-04-20
2012-04-13
2012-03-23
2012-03-20
2012-03-16
2012-03-09
2012-03-02
2012-02-24
2012-02-17
2012-02-10
2012-02-03
2012-01-27
2012-01-20
2012-01-13
2012-01-06
2011-12-30
2011-12-23
2011-12-19
2011-12-09
2011-12-05
2011-11-25
2011-11-18
2011-11-11
2011-11-04
2011-10-28
2011-10-21
2011-10-14
2011-10-07
2011-09-30
2011-09-23
2011-09-16
2011-09-09
2011-09-02
2011-08-26
2011-08-19
2011-08-15
2011-08-05
2011-08-05
2011-08-01
2011-07-22
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-06
2011-07-04
2011-06-27
2011-06-17
2011-06-10
2011-06-03
2011-05-27
2011-05-20
2011-05-13
2011-04-29