2018-07-16

利比亞東西勢力達成共識​原油價格大幅下挫

美國WTI原油8月期貨週三(7月11日)收跌3.73美元,報70.38美元/桶,盤中最深跌超5.2%,較日高回落4.24美元,油價主要受利比亞原油出口得到恢復以及石油輸出國組織(OPEC)產量上升影響令油價承壓暴跌。

從表面看去,今次油價下跌最主要的原因是利比亞東部四個港口意外地達成共識,預期將快速恢復生產和出口。利比亞作為非洲石油大國,其石油儲量有415億桶,位居世界第9位,非洲第一。 自2011年卡扎菲倒台後,利比亞正被兩大勢力割據對峙,分別為利比亞民族團結政府與支持它的武裝力量控制著西部部分地區、以及國民代表大會在東部城市圖卜魯格另建政府,與哈夫塔爾領導的“國民軍”聯盟(LNA)。而引發6月成為國際原油供給干擾大事件的利比亞局勢,就是由西部被國際承認的民族團結政府,與東部政府之間爭奪石油收入引發的。

2016年9月,利比亞國民軍從石油設施警衛手中奪回了該國石油出口碼頭的控制權,並將其移交給利比亞國家石油公司(NOC),讓所有人都鬆了一口氣。但兩年後,以哈夫塔爾為首的國民軍再次控制了“石油新月地帶”,這一次,他們關閉了港口,導致石油產量大幅減少。

“石油新月地帶”,即蘇爾特灣沿岸,是位於利比亞首都的黎波里以東500公里處的產油區,該地區石油產量約占利比亞石油總產量的80%,且擁有該國最大的石油儲備庫和3個最大的石油運輸港口,其中包括拉斯拉努夫和西德拉港。根據利比亞國家石油公司負責人表示,由於近期石油港口的關閉,利比亞的石油日產量從2月份的高點128萬桶下降到52.7萬桶。國家石油委員會此前曾預估,停產造成的生產損失為每日85萬桶,相當於每天減少6700萬美元的收入。

而近年來,利比亞經濟疲軟,民生凋敝,封鎖石油港口意味著嚴重打擊利比亞本就脆弱不堪的經濟。尤其是隨著夏季即將來臨,電力中斷,加油站排長隊,食品短缺將變得更加普遍,因此西部NOC建議“國民軍”總司令哈夫塔爾將國家利益放在首位,民族團結政府也將出台具有透明性的公平分配石油收入方案,並公佈預算和公共支出的細節。而現時NOC已解除東部原油港口的不可抗力。這些港口現在回到政府軍手中。這讓利比亞重新恢復生產成為可能。分析師預計,這或許代表利比亞日產將很快恢復到2 月的高位128 萬桶/ 日。

而在原油價格大跌的同時, OPEC 同時發布了月報表示,2018年全球石油日需求量預估將年增165萬桶達到9,885萬桶,2019年也預估將年增145萬桶,此將帶動全球石油需求量首度超過每日1億桶的大關。產量方面,OPEC 15個成員國的原油日產量較前月增加17.34萬桶至3,233萬桶。其中,沙烏地阿拉伯的原油日產量增加40.5萬桶至1,042萬桶,因沙國此前承諾提高產量以應對油市的供給缺口。此外,OPEC又預計非OPEC 產油國2019 年將提供足夠多的石油產量來滿足需求增長,2019 年OPEC 以外產油國石油供應增幅將是五年來最大,建議投資者可於70.02美元/桶沽WTI原油(8月),目標價68.12美元/桶,止蝕72.33美元/桶。

 

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2017-03-28
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2017-02-27
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2017-01-03
2016-12-19
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2016-11-14
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2016-09-19
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2015-09-29
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2015-08-31
2015-07-27
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2015-06-01
2015-05-26
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2014-11-11
2014-11-03
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2014-09-22
2014-09-15
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2014-08-26
2014-08-18
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2014-07-28
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2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
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2014-06-04
2014-05-26
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2014-04-28
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