2018-04-16

受俄鋁制裁影響​ LME鋁價持續強勢

週三, LME 期鋁收漲 2.2% ,連續第六個交易日上漲,至少創2017 年12 月份以來最長連漲天數,盤中漲幅一度高達 3.5% 至 2277.50 美元/ 噸,逼近 5 年高位,距離去年12 月的近五年高點僅差13 美元。 升幅主要受最球第二大鋁生產商俄鋁被美國製裁所引發的供求危機所帶動。

上週五(4月6日),美國財政部發布新的對俄製裁措施,對象包括7名俄羅斯商業大亨,他們擁有或持股的12家公司,以及17名俄羅斯政府高級官員。被制裁的個人及公司的資產會被凍結,一般美國籍人士將被禁止與其交易,而在美國的最新制裁名單中,俄羅斯鋁業赫然在列,其總裁、非執行董事Oleg Deripaska、大股東En+ Group Plc也被列為製裁對象。 

俄羅斯鋁業是俄羅斯第一大鋁生產企業,同時也是世界第二大鋁企。去年該公司鋁產量370萬噸,約佔全球總產量的7%,對美出口占其產量的10%以上。週二美股時段及盤後,有關俄鋁公司的壞消息接踵而至。除了富時羅素確認將其從股指中剔除,本周倫敦金屬交易所(LME)和芝加哥商業交易所 (CME) 均表示4月6日以後銷售的俄鋁產品將不能進入LME倉庫,COMEX立即撤銷俄鋁產品交割和擔保。

事實上,這些制裁的影響遠不止如此,甚至可能跨越美國本土蔓延到其他市場。 原因很簡單,美國財政部明確表示,“非美公民也可能因與被制裁的企業級個人或代表其進行交易而受到製裁。” 這其中就包括俄鋁的股東之一嘉能可。2017年,嘉能可通過購銷協議向俄鋁購買了價值24.31億美元的原鋁及其合金製品,這在俄羅斯總計83.24億美元的銷售收入中占到了足足三分之一。 這樣一來,嘉能可就必須考慮如何處理這一棘手的局面。

據目前媒體報導,現時已經有五家國際貿易商停止向俄鋁採購,英美兩地的交易所也都拒絕了俄鋁所生產的鋁錠的交割。分析師表示,鋁市的供應將會變得非常緊張,市場可能將需要更長的時間才能夠獲得鋁金屬的供應。為大宗商品交易商提供法律咨詢服務的Clyde & Co LLP律師事務所合夥人John Whittaker認為,俄鋁制裁對鋁市的影響就相當於伊朗制裁對油市的影響那樣。

不過問題是,既然來自俄羅斯的鋁被美國市場拒絕了,那麼其所造成的美國鋁市場缺口會否被中國的供應所填補呢? 雖然中國本身就是全球最大的鋁生產國,佔了全球產量的一半以上,但市場仍懷疑中國是否有能力消化這麼多的鋁及其製品。

現時LME鋁庫存處於十年最低位附近時,中國的鋁庫存正在以驚人的速度增長,目前已處於歷史峰值水平。 官方數據顯示,截至3月16日為止滬鋁庫存升至934,216噸,連續22週上漲並刷新歷史最高位。同期,倫鋁庫存為1,288,675噸,其曾於2月8日觸及1,058,175噸的近十年最低位。儘管最新數據顯示上期所鋁庫存在清明節前有所下降,但仍處於歷史高位。 退一步講,即使海外需求迅速回升有可能在短時間內消化這麼高的庫存,但也可能導致供應增加,建議投資者可於2233.50 美元/ 噸購三個月期鋁,目標價2275美元/ 噸,止蝕2000美元/ 噸。

日期 大市分析
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
2018-04-03
2018-03-19
2018-03-12
2018-03-05
2018-02-26
2018-02-20
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
2016-05-09
2016-05-03
2016-04-27
2016-04-11
2016-04-05
2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
2011-10-28
2011-10-12
2011-10-08
2011-09-19
2011-09-03
2011-08-29
2011-08-22
2011-08-13
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2011-07-18
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2011-06-22
2011-06-13
2011-05-30
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2011-05-16
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2011-04-18
2011-04-04
2011-03-28
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2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
2010-07-20
2010-07-13
2010-07-05
2010-06-28
2010-06-21
2010-06-11
2010-05-17
2010-05-10
2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
2010-01-06
2009-11-27
2009-11-20
2009-11-16
2009-10-28
2009-10-05
2009-09-29
2009-09-07
2009-08-28
2009-08-21
2009-08-20
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2009-07-24
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2009-05-18
2009-05-07
2009-05-04
2009-04-30
2009-04-29
2009-04-29
2009-04-27
2009-04-27
2009-04-22
2009-04-22
2009-04-20
2009-04-17
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-03-31
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2009-03-27
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2009-02-27
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2009-02-13
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