2017-04-24

美國產量持續增長 供應過剩利空油價

美國WTI原油5月期貨週二(4月18日)收跌0.24美元,報52.41美元/桶。美國頁岩油產量料將大幅走高的消息令市場擔憂情緒重新升溫,而OPEC對於會否延長協議前景仍然未明朗。

美國油服公司貝克休斯(BakerHughes)週四(4月13日)公佈數據顯示,截至4月13日當週,美國石油活躍鑽井數增加11座至683座,連續13週錄得增加的同時觸及近兩年最高。去年同期的美國石油活躍鑽井數僅為351座。同時當周美國石油和天然氣活躍鑽井總數增加8座至847座。受石油活躍鑽井數持續增長影響,美國美國能源資料協會(EIA)預計美國5月頁岩油產量預計增至519萬桶/日,美國最大的頁岩油產區--二疊紀盆地的產量預計將達到創紀錄的236萬桶/日。

此外,EIA又公佈最新的庫存數據顯,截至4月14日當週,美國原油庫存減少103.4萬桶,市場預估為減少147萬桶。美國汽油庫存則增加154.2萬桶,連續8週錄得下滑後首次上升,創2月10日以來新高,市場預估為減少193.8萬桶。此外,上周美國國內原油產量增加1.7萬桶至925.2萬桶/日,連續9週增加且維持在900萬桶/日關口上方,觸及2015年8月以來最高水平。此外,美國5月頁岩油產量預計將增加12.3萬桶/日,創下519萬桶/日的2015年11月來高位,較2016年底增加了43.87萬桶/日。 

相為對比,美國石油協會(API)週二報告,截至4月14日當週,美國原油庫存減少84萬桶,至5.57529億桶,分析師預估為減少150萬桶,下降主要因煉廠增產。上週汽油庫存意外增加137.4萬桶,分析師預估為減少190萬桶。包括柴油和取暖油的餾分油庫存減少180萬桶,分析師預估為減少98.8萬桶。

OPEC方面,自1月1日起,OPEC成員國協議每日減產約120萬桶,並承諾11個OPEC成員國減產至每日2980.4萬桶,以支撐油價。而俄羅斯和其他10個非OPEC成員國則同意減產約60萬桶。根據《路透》所見到的、OPEC用來監控產量的二手消息來源的平均預估,需履行減產協議的11個OPEC成員國,已將平均日產量降至2975.7萬桶,這意味了原油減產幅度超過OPEC的減產要求幅度,這相當於達到104%的兌現率,其中沙特3月減產執行率為113%,卡塔爾為120%,安哥拉為176%。

在全球瞳景OPEC將會延長減產的時候,沙特能源部長法利赫(Khalidal-Falih)週一的發言引發了市場嘩然。沙地阿拉伯能源部長法力赫表示,石油出口國組織(OPEC)國家和非OPEC國家之間的減產協議執行力度非常高,執行率超過100%,但討論是否延長減產協議還為時過早。法利赫又認為OPEC內部對於穩定油市有共識,產油國將採取一切必要措施達成這個目標,不論是需要六個月還是更長時間。而根據聯合組織數據倡議(JODI)數據顯示,沙特2月石油產量卻是從1月的975萬桶增加至1,000萬桶,因國內煉廠原油加工增加。這意味著沙特石油仍可能持續進入全球已然供應過剩的市場,建議投資者於52.43美元/桶沽5月原油期貨,目標價48.32美元/桶,止蝕54.36美元/桶。

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