2017-05-22

美國政治動盪持續 避險爆發推高金價

國際現貨黃金周二(5月16日)亞市早盤開於1230.21美元/盎司,最高上漲至1239.11美元/盎司,並收漲於1236.40美元/盎司。升幅主要受有美國官員表示美國總統特朗普向俄羅斯大使洩露了高度機密的信息,包括伊斯蘭國的行動計劃,消息導緻美國政局不穩帶動金價上升。

兩名美國官員周一表示,總統特朗普向俄羅斯外交部長透露了高度機密訊息,告知一項有關於計劃中的伊斯蘭國(IS)行動,這令上任沒幾個月的特朗普又再度陷入爭議之中。兩名熟知情況的官員均表示,情報來源是和美國聯手對抗IS的一個盟友。 

特朗普上週與俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫(Sergei Lavrov)和俄羅斯駐美大使基斯利亞克(Sergei Kislyak)會面時,透露了機密情報於對方,而內容包括伊斯蘭國(IS)如何利用筆記型電腦的威脅有關。其後,特朗普雖然在其Twitter上發帖解釋,作為總統他有「絕對權力」且有「人道理由」與俄羅斯分享資訊,但有分析認為,此舉讓人質疑特朗普是否能承擔總統的重責大任,以及他是否了解,與美國的敵手談論重大機密可能的影響。 

這件事情爆出之際,特朗普政府突然開除美國聯邦調查局(FBI)前局長科米一事的影響尚未散去,據悉特朗普此前曾要求前FBI局長科米結束針對前美國國家安全顧問弗林(Mike Flynn)與俄羅斯之間關係的調查。據一位看過科米所寫備忘錄的消息人士稱,科米在備忘錄中詳細說明了特朗普在2月時對他說“我希望你能放過此事”的情況,指的是對弗林的調查。對此,美國司法部任命前聯邦調查局局長穆勒(Robert Mueller)為特別檢察官,調查俄羅斯介入2016年美國總統大選,及可能與總統特朗普競選陣營勾結的指控。而俄羅斯總統普京周三(5月17日)替特朗普解圍,稱特朗普並未向拉夫羅夫透露任何機密。並表示如果能夠有助於安撫美國議員的話,莫斯科準備交給他們一份這次會議的文字記錄。

受過去一周美國的政治動盪且經濟數據遜於預期影響,美元及美股紛紛出現走資潮。美元指數已自1月3日觸及的14年高位103.82下跌了5.8%,現報97.42,觸及11月初以來最低水準,並回吐美國11月大選結束以來的全部漲幅。儘管特朗普意外勝選在最初引發美元和美國資產買興,因市場對他的減稅和基建支出計劃抱有期待,如今所謂的“特朗普行情”已經逐漸消退。

另一方面,美股周三創下特朗普當選以來最大的挫跌,標普500指數周三下跌1.7%,創下八個月來最大單日跌幅,而那些押注特朗普政策將刺激增長和通脹的倉位遭到解除。“特朗普交易到今天已經結束了,”Gerber Kawasaki財富投資管理公司共同創辦人暨執行長Ross Gerber表示。與此同時,有基金表示正考慮增加對黃金等避險資產以及外國股票的投資,作為對美股投資的對沖。

美國政治及經濟的動盪下降了市場對於本年度多次升息的預期,此前美聯儲3月升息時聯儲官員曾預期今年還有可能再升息兩到三次。根據聯邦基金利率期貨目前的走勢顯示,6月升息的機率只有約60%,而本月初的機率曾為90%左右,在12月前升息一次的機率目前都沒有100%,因此建議投資者可於1243.18美元/盎司購6月期金,目標價1253.83美元/盎司,止蝕1238.12美元/盎司。

日期 大市分析
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
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2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
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2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
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2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
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2015-11-23
2015-11-16
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2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
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2015-06-17
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2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
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2014-12-17
2014-12-08
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2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
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2014-05-26
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2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
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2013-04-29
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2013-03-25
2013-03-18
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2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
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