2017-09-11

煉廠產能逐漸恢復​支撐原油價格上升

美國WTI原油10月期貨週二(9月5日)重拾脹勢,盤中最高觸及48.98美元/桶,收漲1.37美元,報48.66美元/桶。升幅主要由於哈維影響減弱,美國墨西哥灣沿岸煉廠逐步恢復生產,加上颶風伊爾瑪(Irma)迫近美國海岸,令到墨西哥灣產油區可能再面對衝擊,幫助油價重拾漲勢。

颱風哈維上個月襲擊得克薩斯州海岸時,美國大約25%的煉油產能關閉。哈維過後,作為美國“能源之都”的休斯敦開始災後恢復,當地煉油廠也重新運作。但生產的恢復並不是摁一下開關那麼簡單,並且許多關鍵的運輸設施依然關閉。

截至周二下午,墨西哥灣仍有六家煉油廠(佔美國煉油產能的9%)未恢復生產。另外五家煉油廠正在重啟過程之中,並且至少七家煉油廠只恢復了部分產能。預估現時有約每日380萬桶的產能處於關閉狀態,或占美國煉廠總產能的20%,颶風哈維影響高峰期時為420萬桶。

另外,沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司(Saudi Arabian Oil Co.)周二表示,正在初步重啟其Motiva煉油廠,這是美國第一大煉油廠。但該公司表示,到本周末其得州Port Arthur煉油設施或僅能恢復40%的產能;這家煉油廠日產能達到60萬桶。另外埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Co., XOM)上周末表示,正在著手恢復其Baytown煉油廠的生產,這是美國第二大煉油廠。

與此同時,市場也在為墨西哥灣潛在的石油生產中斷做準備,因颶風伊爾瑪逼近弗羅里達。伊爾瑪將是過去80年風力最強的大西洋五大颶風之一。週三下午該颶風經過維珍群島最北端,週末將移向佛羅里達州,令投資人擔心可能重創一主要需求中心,並造成燃料油短缺加劇,對此德國商業銀行商品研究主管Eugen Weinberg表示,如果原油產出受到新的風暴破壞,將提振油價。

而受颶風哈維的影響,產油商紛紛暫停勘探活動,美國油服公司貝克休斯(BakerHughes)上週五(9月1日)公佈數據顯示,截至9月1日當週,美國石油活躍鑽井數持平於759座,更多數據顯示,當周美國石油和天然氣活躍鑽井總數增加3座至943座。

庫存方面,根據美國能源信息署(EIA)上週三(8月30日)公佈的數據顯示,截至8月25日當週,美國原油庫存下降539.2萬桶,市場預估為減少190.8萬桶。同時上周美國原油庫存下降約539萬桶,至4.5777億桶,較3月曆史峰值回落約14.5%。不過,分析師卻表示,他們關注美國能源資料協會(EIA)即將公佈的庫存週報,預計將令投資人更好的了解颶風哈維對美國燃料油庫存的影響。但分析師表示,要全面了解狀況,可能還需要幾週的時間。受訪的分析師平均預期,在連降九週後,截至9月1日當周美國原油庫存可能增加500萬桶,汽油庫存預計減少570萬桶,包括取暖油和柴油在內的餾分油庫存預計減少350萬桶。

颱風哈維影響逐漸減退後,美國墨西哥灣沿岸煉油廠正逐步恢復生產,再加上

市場人士擔心新颱風伊爾瑪可能損毀產油設施,因而推動油價上升,建議投資者可於48.63美元/桶購WTI期油(10月),目標價50.01美元/桶,止蝕46.33美元/桶。

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