2018-01-22

受供應過剩影響 ​​原糖期貨急跌至三個半月低位

洲際交易所(ICE)原糖期貨週二(1月16)急跌逾4%至三個半月低位,報每磅13.59美分,盤中觸及9月底以來最低13.57美分。原糖下跌受累於預期全球供應過剩,以及巴西雷亞爾兌美元走軟。而ICE3月原糖期貨收跌0.59美分或4.2%導致3月與5月合約貼水一度觸及9月以來最闊0.19美分。

泰國為全球第二大糖出口國。過去兩年來,泰國遭遇了二十多年來最嚴重的干旱以及反常的強降雨,導致部分地區難以進行農業活動。但泰國工業部下屬的甘蔗與糖委員預計,泰國將從過去的惡劣氣象條件的打擊中恢復,泰國政府週四稱,受益於有利的天氣條件,2017/18年度泰國甘蔗及白糖產量將創紀錄高位。泰國工業部委員會副秘書長EkapatWangsuwan表示,考慮天氣條件的影響,甘蔗產量將達到1.07-1.1億噸。這一預估遠高於上一年度泰國實際甘蔗產量9300萬噸。而目前甘蔗產量最高紀錄為2014/15年度創下的1.05億噸。Ekapat表示,據此推算,白糖產量將達到1100至1200萬噸,與美國農業部(USDA)駐泰國專員於2017年9月發布的預估值1120萬噸基本相符。

泰國同樣為糖主產國。根據該國官方數據顯示,2017/18榨季截至1月11日,印度最大食糖生產邦北方邦的食糖產量達到410.1萬噸(白糖值),高於去年同期的332.68萬噸。甘蔗壓榨量從去年的3370.13萬噸提高到4026.21萬噸,出糖率從一年前的9.87%提高到了10.19%。本榨季北方邦預計共119家糖廠開工,目前已有118家開榨,去年同期為116家。

受天氣條件有利以及產量配額政策的終結刺激農民大幅增加種植面積所帶動,歐盟今年將迎來甜菜大豐收。歐盟預計糖產量將跳增40%至2500萬噸,因甜菜單產改善。

巴西作為全球最大糖產國,根據該國甘蔗行業組織Unica上週五報告稱,12月下半月巴西中南部糖廠甘蔗壓榨量同比減少18.09%,為255.6萬噸,產糖11.1萬噸,同比下滑15.62%,期間糖廠用31.25%的甘蔗產糖,低於去年同期的35.28。巴西中南部2018/19榨季甘蔗產量預計為5.85億噸,低於10月預估的5.91億噸。Archer預計巴西中南部2018/19榨季糖產量為3270萬噸,低於10月預估的3550萬噸。預計巴西產量下降270萬噸左右。

需求方面,中國作為最大糖消費國,根據海關總署公佈的數據顯示,中國10月進口食糖17萬噸,同比增加6萬噸,環比增加1萬噸;按年度統計,2017年1-10月累計進口食糖200.32萬噸,同比下降26.5%。進口關稅上調,政府嚴控配額外自動許可審批,食糖進口量仍維持較低水平,展望17/18榨季食糖進口量為230萬噸,與上月持平。

國際糖業組織(ISO)在最新季度報告中表示,全球糖價2017年全年挫跌25%,主要因市場預期糖市在連續兩年供應短缺之後轉為供應過剩。此外,ISO又預計全球糖市2017/18 年度將供應過剩500 萬噸,而2016/17 年度為供應短缺310 萬噸,其中主要是因印度、歐盟和泰國產量上升。

整體上,全球主要產糖國中,除了巴西產量下降270萬噸外,其他主產過產量均預計增加。其中中國增產約100萬噸,印度增產500萬噸,歐盟增產700萬噸,泰國增產100萬噸。需求方面,由於全球的增量相對比較有限,反映糖價將持續下行,建議投資者可於13.42美分/磅沽ICE3月原糖期貨,目標價12.88美分/磅,止蝕14.18美分/磅。

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