2019-03-22

內房有追落後潛力

去年因內地樓市調控嚴厲,樓價及成交均明顯受壓,不過從近期公佈業績的內房企業業績來看,房企盈利仍較市場預期好,加之今年調控政策強調「因城施策」,多個城市出現放鬆信號,料可支持整體走勢。

去年內地受金融去槓桿、調控收緊等多方面因素影響,房地產市場遇冷。今年1、2月內地開發商整體住房銷售數據仍呈現下滑趨勢,同比下降約兩成。不過,其中分化亦十分明顯,一、二線藍籌房企表現較好,小企業壓力較大。而在今年的兩會報告中,對於房地產調控不再強調「房住不炒」,而是注重穩定,被視為房地產局部鬆綁的信號。兩會期間提及房地產稅立法穩步推進,被解讀為仍需時間,昨日中國財政部提交的《2019年立法工作安排》中也未有提及房地產稅,更證實市場的看法。

不僅政策環境趨穩給內房板塊帶來支持,近期公佈的亮麗業績也推升市場的炒作情緒。內房龍頭碧桂園(2007.HK)本周發佈年報,截至去年底止年度純利為346.18億元(人民幣,下同)按年升32.8%,股東應佔核心淨利潤為341.3億元,同比上漲了38.2%,勝於市場預期。期內集團的合約銷售金額及銷售面積分別增長31%及23%。集團強調目前可銷售資源達7,800億元,能支持今年的合同銷售有所增長。而以集團總可銷售資源來看,可支持5.7年的銷售,令碧桂園可放緩拿地步伐,避開潛在的市場風險。中海外(688.HK)去年核心盈利同比上升8.3%,淨利潤率達26.2%,合約銷售金額同比增長約三成,全年銷售目標較去年增長16%至3,500億元,整體亦符合市場預期。下周將公佈業績的恆大(3333.HK),月初已發佈盈喜,料去年核心業務淨利潤將增長超過90%,加上此前被恆大借殼的深深房A(000029.SZ)公佈恆大取得港交所對恆大地產在A股重組上市的批覆,均利好股價走勢。

從基本面看,中國經濟雖有下行壓力,政府已通過定向降準、大規模減稅降費等舉措來刺激和盤活市場活力,在中美貿易關係趨穩的外部環境下,料成效可在二三季度逐步顯現,這有利於穩定房地產市場的銷售預期。另一方面,美聯儲議息會議最新表態反映今年不會加息,且9月將暫停縮表,這有利於緩和息口上升壓力,對減輕內房的資金流動壓力也有幫助。近期多家內房在業績後調升銷售目標,若市況維持向好氛圍,料股價仍有重估向上空間,尤其可關注部分落後的二線內房股。

 

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日期 大市分析
2019-03-22
2019-03-15
2019-03-08
2019-03-01
2019-02-22
2019-02-15
2019-02-08
2019-02-01
2019-01-25
2019-01-18
2019-01-11
2018-12-28
2018-12-21
2018-12-14
2018-12-07
2018-11-30
2018-11-23
2018-11-16
2018-11-09
2018-11-02
2018-10-26
2018-10-19
2018-10-12
2018-09-28
2018-09-21
2018-09-14
2018-09-07
2018-08-31
2018-08-24
2018-08-17
2018-08-10
2018-08-03
2018-07-27
2018-07-20
2018-07-13
2018-06-29
2018-06-22
2018-06-15
2018-06-08
2018-06-01
2018-05-25
2018-05-18
2018-05-11
2018-05-04
2018-04-27
2018-04-20
2018-04-13
2018-03-29
2018-03-23
2018-03-16
2018-03-09
2018-03-02
2018-02-23
2018-02-15
2018-02-09
2018-02-02
2018-01-26
2018-01-19
2018-01-12
2017-12-29
2017-12-15
2017-12-08
2017-12-01
2017-11-24
2017-11-17
2017-11-10
2017-11-03
2017-10-27
2017-10-20
2017-10-13
2017-09-29
2017-09-22
2017-09-15
2017-09-08
2017-09-01
2017-08-25
2017-08-18
2017-08-11
2017-08-04
2017-07-28
2017-07-21
2017-07-14
2017-06-30
2017-06-23
2017-06-16
2017-06-09
2017-06-02
2017-05-26
2017-05-19
2017-05-12
2017-05-05
2017-04-28
2017-04-21
2017-04-13
2017-03-31
2017-03-24
2017-03-17
2017-03-10
2017-03-03
2017-02-24
2017-02-17
2017-02-10
2017-02-03
2017-01-27
2017-01-20
2017-01-13
2016-12-30
2016-12-29
2016-12-16
2016-12-09
2016-12-02
2016-11-25
2016-11-18
2016-11-11
2016-11-04
2016-10-28
2016-10-14
2016-09-30
2016-09-23
2016-09-09
2016-09-02
2016-08-26
2016-08-19
2016-08-12
2016-08-05
2016-07-29
2016-07-22
2016-07-15
2016-06-30
2016-06-24
2016-06-17
2016-06-10
2016-06-03
2016-05-27
2016-05-20
2016-05-13
2016-05-06
2016-04-29
2016-04-22
2016-04-15
2016-04-07
2016-04-01
2016-03-24
2016-03-18
2016-03-11
2016-03-04
2016-02-26
2016-02-19
2016-02-12
2016-02-05
2016-01-29
2016-01-22
2016-01-15
2015-12-31
2015-12-24
2015-12-18
2015-12-11
2015-12-04
2015-11-27
2015-11-20
2015-11-13
2015-11-06
2015-10-30
2015-10-23
2015-10-16
2015-10-02
2015-09-25
2015-09-18
2015-09-11
2015-09-04
2015-08-28
2015-08-14
2015-08-07
2015-07-31
2015-07-24
2015-07-17
2015-07-03
2015-06-26
2015-06-19
2015-06-12
2015-06-05
2015-05-29
2015-05-22
2015-05-15
2015-05-08
2015-04-30
2015-04-24
2015-04-17
2015-04-10
2015-03-27
2015-03-20
2015-03-13
2015-03-06
2015-02-27
2015-02-13
2015-02-06
2015-01-30
2015-01-23
2015-01-16
2015-01-02
2014-12-24
2014-12-19
2014-12-12
2014-12-05
2014-11-28
2014-11-21
2014-11-14
2014-11-07
2014-10-31
2014-10-24
2014-10-17
2014-10-10
2014-09-26
2014-09-12
2014-09-05
2014-08-29
2014-08-22
2014-08-15
2014-08-08
2014-08-01
2014-07-25
2014-07-18
2014-07-11
2014-06-27
2014-06-20
2014-06-13
2014-06-06
2014-05-30
2014-05-23
2014-05-16
2014-05-09
2014-05-02
2014-04-25
2014-04-17
2014-04-11
2014-03-28
2014-03-21
2014-03-14
2014-03-07
2014-02-28
2014-02-21
2014-02-14
2014-02-07
2014-01-30
2014-01-24
2014-01-17
2014-01-10
2014-01-03
2013-12-27
2013-12-20
2013-12-13
2013-12-06
2013-11-29
2013-11-22
2013-11-08
2013-11-01
2013-10-25
2013-10-18
2013-10-11
2013-10-04
2013-09-27
2013-09-19
2013-09-13
2013-09-06
2013-08-30
2013-08-23
2013-08-16
2013-08-09
2013-08-02
2013-07-26
2013-07-19
2013-07-12
2013-06-14
2013-05-31
2013-05-03
2013-04-26
2013-04-19
2013-04-05
2013-03-15
2013-03-08
2013-03-01
2013-02-22
2013-02-15
2013-02-08
2013-02-01
2013-01-25
2013-01-11
2013-01-04
2012-12-28
2012-12-21
2012-12-14
2012-12-02
2012-11-23
2012-11-16
2012-11-09
2012-11-02
2012-10-12
2012-10-05
2012-09-21
2012-09-14
2012-09-07
2012-08-31
2012-08-24
2012-08-10
2012-08-03
2012-07-27
2012-07-20
2012-07-13
2012-07-06
2012-06-29
2012-06-22
2012-06-15
2012-06-08
2012-06-01
2012-05-25
2012-05-18
2012-05-17
2012-05-11
2012-05-04
2012-04-27
2012-04-20
2012-04-13
2012-03-23
2012-03-20
2012-03-16
2012-03-09
2012-03-02
2012-02-24
2012-02-17
2012-02-10
2012-02-03
2012-01-27
2012-01-20
2012-01-13
2012-01-06
2011-12-30
2011-12-23
2011-12-19
2011-12-09
2011-12-05
2011-11-25
2011-11-18
2011-11-11
2011-11-04
2011-10-28
2011-10-21
2011-10-14
2011-10-07
2011-09-30
2011-09-23
2011-09-16
2011-09-09
2011-09-02
2011-08-26
2011-08-19
2011-08-15
2011-08-05
2011-08-05
2011-08-01
2011-07-22
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-06
2011-07-04
2011-06-27
2011-06-17
2011-06-10
2011-06-03
2011-05-27
2011-05-20
2011-05-13
2011-04-29