2019-03-15

近期反彈浪中的兩個現象

近期恆指續在兩萬八千點至兩萬九千點左右爭持,一方面受A股、美股兩大市場升市支撐,另一方面近期經濟數據的疲弱,令投資者擔憂企業的增長動力受阻。投資者對於後市顯然陷入分歧,一則不少藍籌股公佈理想的業績後,股價未能進一步走升,反而多見獲利回吐;另一方面,部分新經濟半新股受追捧,反映市場風險胃納上升,資金由防守股份流入增長板塊。這兩個看似矛盾的現象,反映投資者多認為大市反彈一段時間後或進入調整,同時資金仍期待中美貿易談判達成及中國金融改革對市場帶來的刺激,現階段可留心在市場上的落後個股,以部署下一輪炒作。

業績期進入熾熱階段,不少市場矚目的藍籌已紛紛公佈業績。儘管去年受中美貿易爭端及中國去槓桿影響,藍籌股的表現仍然不俗,不過由於去年底至今已有大幅度反彈 ,即便是績佳股份在業績公佈後亦免不了回吐,缺乏進一步炒上動力。不論是傳統藍籌恆生銀行(11.HK),還是新晉藍籌創科實業(669.HK)均有此現象。創科實業去年利潤增長不俗,現金充裕,主打產品市佔率增長快,毛利率穩健提升,唯績後仍不免回吐。誠然這些股份績前已累積一定升幅,但若投資者對未來信心堅定,業績將是推升股價的催化劑,而非獲利回吐的藉口。這反映大市來到兩萬九關口,投資者分歧愈加明顯。

另一值得注意的現象是,市場的風險胃納明顯增加,領展(823.HK)等去年跑贏大市的保守股近期走勢偏軟,反而去年底在市況低迷中上市的新經濟半新股,重新引來資金關注。比如同程藝龍(780.HK),去年底因市況差申請未足額,上市後跌穿招股價,低見8.87元,今年以來隨市況回穩,股價已從低位反彈近一倍。另一騰訊概念股貓眼娛樂年初上市後也一度潛水,近期大幅走升,自低位反彈逾三成。還有微盟(2013.HK)、剛剛發盈喜的創夢天地(1119.HK)均見資金流入。不過,並非所有新經濟半新股均能強勢反彈,如在2017年熱烈市況中以高估值掛牌的閱文(772.HK)因蟹貨太多,反彈阻力太大,明顯落後大市。港交所去年允許同股不同權及容許未有盈利生物科技公司赴港上市,吸引大量內地新經濟公司掛牌,雖當時受累於市況,未受資金青睞,但隨今年內地科創板加速推出,美團(3690.HK)、小米(1810.HK)等新經濟半新股被納入MSCI新興市場指數,在市況回暖下,業績對辦的新經濟股將得到更多投資者關注。不妨小注吸納質優、蟹貨少的半新股,短期內仍有炒作空間,唯長線表現,仍要關注後市氣氛和企業基本面。

下載

日期 大市分析
2019-03-15
2019-03-08
2019-03-01
2019-02-22
2019-02-15
2019-02-08
2019-02-01
2019-01-25
2019-01-18
2019-01-11
2018-12-28
2018-12-21
2018-12-14
2018-12-07
2018-11-30
2018-11-23
2018-11-16
2018-11-09
2018-11-02
2018-10-26
2018-10-19
2018-10-12
2018-09-28
2018-09-21
2018-09-14
2018-09-07
2018-08-31
2018-08-24
2018-08-17
2018-08-10
2018-08-03
2018-07-27
2018-07-20
2018-07-13
2018-06-29
2018-06-22
2018-06-15
2018-06-08
2018-06-01
2018-05-25
2018-05-18
2018-05-11
2018-05-04
2018-04-27
2018-04-20
2018-04-13
2018-03-29
2018-03-23
2018-03-16
2018-03-09
2018-03-02
2018-02-23
2018-02-15
2018-02-09
2018-02-02
2018-01-26
2018-01-19
2018-01-12
2017-12-29
2017-12-15
2017-12-08
2017-12-01
2017-11-24
2017-11-17
2017-11-10
2017-11-03
2017-10-27
2017-10-20
2017-10-13
2017-09-29
2017-09-22
2017-09-15
2017-09-08
2017-09-01
2017-08-25
2017-08-18
2017-08-11
2017-08-04
2017-07-28
2017-07-21
2017-07-14
2017-06-30
2017-06-23
2017-06-16
2017-06-09
2017-06-02
2017-05-26
2017-05-19
2017-05-12
2017-05-05
2017-04-28
2017-04-21
2017-04-13
2017-03-31
2017-03-24
2017-03-17
2017-03-10
2017-03-03
2017-02-24
2017-02-17
2017-02-10
2017-02-03
2017-01-27
2017-01-20
2017-01-13
2016-12-30
2016-12-29
2016-12-16
2016-12-09
2016-12-02
2016-11-25
2016-11-18
2016-11-11
2016-11-04
2016-10-28
2016-10-14
2016-09-30
2016-09-23
2016-09-09
2016-09-02
2016-08-26
2016-08-19
2016-08-12
2016-08-05
2016-07-29
2016-07-22
2016-07-15
2016-06-30
2016-06-24
2016-06-17
2016-06-10
2016-06-03
2016-05-27
2016-05-20
2016-05-13
2016-05-06
2016-04-29
2016-04-22
2016-04-15
2016-04-07
2016-04-01
2016-03-24
2016-03-18
2016-03-11
2016-03-04
2016-02-26
2016-02-19
2016-02-12
2016-02-05
2016-01-29
2016-01-22
2016-01-15
2015-12-31
2015-12-24
2015-12-18
2015-12-11
2015-12-04
2015-11-27
2015-11-20
2015-11-13
2015-11-06
2015-10-30
2015-10-23
2015-10-16
2015-10-02
2015-09-25
2015-09-18
2015-09-11
2015-09-04
2015-08-28
2015-08-14
2015-08-07
2015-07-31
2015-07-24
2015-07-17
2015-07-03
2015-06-26
2015-06-19
2015-06-12
2015-06-05
2015-05-29
2015-05-22
2015-05-15
2015-05-08
2015-04-30
2015-04-24
2015-04-17
2015-04-10
2015-03-27
2015-03-20
2015-03-13
2015-03-06
2015-02-27
2015-02-13
2015-02-06
2015-01-30
2015-01-23
2015-01-16
2015-01-02
2014-12-24
2014-12-19
2014-12-12
2014-12-05
2014-11-28
2014-11-21
2014-11-14
2014-11-07
2014-10-31
2014-10-24
2014-10-17
2014-10-10
2014-09-26
2014-09-12
2014-09-05
2014-08-29
2014-08-22
2014-08-15
2014-08-08
2014-08-01
2014-07-25
2014-07-18
2014-07-11
2014-06-27
2014-06-20
2014-06-13
2014-06-06
2014-05-30
2014-05-23
2014-05-16
2014-05-09
2014-05-02
2014-04-25
2014-04-17
2014-04-11
2014-03-28
2014-03-21
2014-03-14
2014-03-07
2014-02-28
2014-02-21
2014-02-14
2014-02-07
2014-01-30
2014-01-24
2014-01-17
2014-01-10
2014-01-03
2013-12-27
2013-12-20
2013-12-13
2013-12-06
2013-11-29
2013-11-22
2013-11-08
2013-11-01
2013-10-25
2013-10-18
2013-10-11
2013-10-04
2013-09-27
2013-09-19
2013-09-13
2013-09-06
2013-08-30
2013-08-23
2013-08-16
2013-08-09
2013-08-02
2013-07-26
2013-07-19
2013-07-12
2013-06-14
2013-05-31
2013-05-03
2013-04-26
2013-04-19
2013-04-05
2013-03-15
2013-03-08
2013-03-01
2013-02-22
2013-02-15
2013-02-08
2013-02-01
2013-01-25
2013-01-11
2013-01-04
2012-12-28
2012-12-21
2012-12-14
2012-12-02
2012-11-23
2012-11-16
2012-11-09
2012-11-02
2012-10-12
2012-10-05
2012-09-21
2012-09-14
2012-09-07
2012-08-31
2012-08-24
2012-08-10
2012-08-03
2012-07-27
2012-07-20
2012-07-13
2012-07-06
2012-06-29
2012-06-22
2012-06-15
2012-06-08
2012-06-01
2012-05-25
2012-05-18
2012-05-17
2012-05-11
2012-05-04
2012-04-27
2012-04-20
2012-04-13
2012-03-23
2012-03-20
2012-03-16
2012-03-09
2012-03-02
2012-02-24
2012-02-17
2012-02-10
2012-02-03
2012-01-27
2012-01-20
2012-01-13
2012-01-06
2011-12-30
2011-12-23
2011-12-19
2011-12-09
2011-12-05
2011-11-25
2011-11-18
2011-11-11
2011-11-04
2011-10-28
2011-10-21
2011-10-14
2011-10-07
2011-09-30
2011-09-23
2011-09-16
2011-09-09
2011-09-02
2011-08-26
2011-08-19
2011-08-15
2011-08-05
2011-08-05
2011-08-01
2011-07-22
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-06
2011-07-04
2011-06-27
2011-06-17
2011-06-10
2011-06-03
2011-05-27
2011-05-20
2011-05-13
2011-04-29