2018-10-02

石油供應風險增加​​油價持續走強

WTI 期油(11月)周一(9月24日)收漲1.30美元或1.84%,報72.08美元/桶,也接近四年高位,而布倫特(11月)期油則突破81美元關口,創2014年11月12日以來收盤新高,升幅主要受沙特與俄羅斯能源部負責人均排除了立即增加原油產量的可能性所影響,這將意味著兩國對特朗普增產提議斷然拒絕,提高了石油供應風險。

自今年5月,特朗普政府宣布退出伊朗核協議、恢復對伊制裁後,油價便震盪走高。此外,由於委內瑞拉經濟危機、阿爾及利亞石油港口受到恐怖分子威脅等事件影響,也導致美國總統特朗普上週四(9月20日)再度向OPEC“開火”,並呼籲OPEC國家需要增產以降低油價。

讀者可能會懷疑短期內油價上行有利於美國能源出口,特朗普為什麼還反對高油價?而其中最大的原因就是:選票。中選降至,油價的上漲可能會損害美國經濟,而這將影響特朗普的政績。根據最新的民調顯示,特朗普所在的共和黨很有可能將失去眾議院的掌控,目前,其民調支持率僅有41%。民調和預測市場表明中選最可能出現的結果是民主黨控制眾議院,共和黨控制參議院。一旦中期選舉失利,特朗普對未來基建和新一輪減稅政策的實施將大打折扣,這也是其不希望的結果,因此特朗普決定將罪責推卸給OPEC。

對於特朗普的指控,沙特能源部長法利赫(Khalid al-Falih)在阿爾及爾表示OPEC無意像特朗普所說的那樣推高油價,同時表示,除非市場出現嚴重的供應緊縮,否則不會提高產量。此外,伊朗官員亦一再堅持OPEC不應該提高產量,彌補伊朗石油的缺口。

另一方面,俄羅斯能源部長諾瓦克(Alexander Novak)也做出了類似的表述,他認為沒有立即增產的必要。但他進一步表示,全球貿易風險以及美國對伊朗的製裁,正在給石油市場帶來新的挑戰。

俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯重申,如果有必要,它們將能夠提供額外數量的石油,因為仍有閒置產能。按現時情況來看,OPEC國家的備用產能總計為270萬桶/日,其中60%位於沙特阿拉伯,沙特擁有世界上最大的備用石油產能。沙特歷史最高產量為1072萬桶/日。8月,沙特日產量為1040萬桶/日,距離2016年的高點還有32萬桶的距離。 然而,沙特增產也存在一個週期,不可能一蹴而就。沙特聲稱其備用產能在150萬桶/日到200萬桶/日之間,理論上雖然能保證增產200萬桶,但是需要一年來完成。

收目前情況影響,從大型原油交易商到華爾街分析師,有關原油價格將於短期內重返100美元的討論不絕於耳。首先,花旗集團在9月24日的一份研究報告中提到了原油價格可能達到三位數的可能性。 包括Ed Morse在內的分析師在報告中表示:“雖然花旗目前預計布倫特原油在未來一個季度的定價為80 美元,但平衡是不穩定的,一旦閒置產能短缺等潛在市場風險都成為現實的話,油價可能上漲至90美元,甚至100美元。”

貿易商方面,瑞士能源巨頭摩科瑞能源集團有限公司(Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.)聯合創始人賈基(Daniel Jaeggi)9月24日在年度亞太石油會議(APPEC)上表示,由於市場沒有足夠的產能來替代伊朗每天超過200萬桶的石油出口,第四季度油價可能會飆升至每桶100美元以上,建議投資者可於 72.10美元/桶購WTI(11月)期貨,目標價80.12美元/桶,止蝕70.03美元/桶。

日期 大市分析
2018-10-02
2018-09-24
2018-09-17
2018-09-10
2018-09-03
2018-08-28
2018-08-20
2018-08-13
2018-08-06
2018-07-31
2018-07-23
2018-07-16
2018-07-09
2018-07-03
2018-06-19
2018-06-11
2018-05-28
2018-05-21
2018-05-14
2018-05-07
2018-04-23
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
2018-04-03
2018-03-19
2018-03-12
2018-03-05
2018-02-26
2018-02-20
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
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2016-05-30
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2016-05-03
2016-04-27
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2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
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2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
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2013-04-29
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2013-04-03
2013-03-25
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2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
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2012-07-30
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2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
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2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
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2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
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2010-11-29
2010-11-20
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2010-11-01
2010-10-25
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2010-07-26
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