2018-12-10

OPEC減產規模恐令人失望 油價週三由漲轉跌

美國WTI原油(1月)期貨週三(12月5日)收跌0.36美元,盤中最低觸及52.16美元/桶,並收報52.89美元/桶。雖然市場普遍預期本週的政策會議上石油輸出國組織(OPEC)將落實減產,但減產規模可能不及預期,這令油價由漲轉跌。

沙特阿拉伯、俄羅斯和OPEC+集團的其他成員建議削減石油產量,但各方尚未就應該減產多少達成一致。 上週G20峰會期間,俄羅斯總統普京和沙特王儲本·薩勒曼會晤,會後宣布,同意將OPEC+減產協議延長至2019年,但尚未決定減產幅度。後彭博社報導稱,俄羅斯與沙特在關於如何分配減產的問題上產生了分歧,俄羅斯稱將下調原油產量最多15萬桶/日。但OPEC堅持認為,俄羅斯將減產25 -30萬桶/日。

阿曼的石油部長Mohammed Al Rumhy週三(12月5日)離開會議時在維也納向媒體表示,OPEC與俄羅斯達成一致,俄羅斯將從明年1月開始,參與6個月的減產計劃。 Al Rumhy還表示,目前被豁免減產的尼日利亞和利比亞目前已同意減產。 目前,各方沒有討論具體的數字,而且仍然對減產的具體規模存在爭議,不過根據路透社報導稱,OPEC及其盟友正致力於推動在10月水平上減產至少130萬桶/日。但若俄羅斯不同意大幅減產,OPEC將推遲減產決定。談判焦點在於較10月產出水準按比例削減3- 3.5%,且任何成員國均無豁免。

OPEC的部長們將於週四(12月6日)舉行會議,就各國需要減產多少達成共識。雖然OPEC的最大產油國沙特阿拉伯將承擔大部分減產,但在完成最終協議之前,沙特阿拉伯希望得到其他國家的承諾。

產量方面,根據法國船運數據追蹤公司Kpler的最新數據顯示,2018年11月石油輸出國組織(OPEC)的原油出口量增加了61.9萬桶/日,其中沙特阿拉伯的原油出口量增加79.1萬桶/日達到813.8萬桶/日,阿拉伯聯合大公國的原油出口量增加47萬桶/日達到282.8萬桶/日,委內瑞拉的原油出口量也增加了35.8萬桶/日。

而伊朗11月原油出口量減少了85.4萬桶/日至104.1萬桶/日,主要由於美國制裁的影響。伊朗OPEC代表Hossein Kazempour Ardebili表示,OPEC內部有許多問題,一些國家對部分國家近幾個月的大幅增產有所不滿,並且一些成員國的產能有限,未必能夠在需要的時候充分減產或是增產,這令一些產量較少的會員國在OPEC內部的影響力有限,最終可能像卡達一樣會選擇退出OPEC。伊朗也稱,由於該國遭遇美國的制裁,因此希望能夠獲得減產協議的豁免。  

而在OPEC和俄羅斯討論減產之際特朗普又在喊話施壓了。特朗普在社交媒體發貼稱:“望OPEC保持現在的石油流量,不要限制。世界不想看到、也不需要更高的油價!”,有分析認為特朗普的喊話可能會對OPEC主導國沙特施加壓力,意圖避免OPEC本週會 談決定大幅減產。

美國石油學會(API)週二(12月4日)公佈報告稱,截至11月30日當週,美國原油庫存增加536萬桶至4.48億桶,分析師預計為減少226.7萬桶。庫欣庫存增加144萬桶,分析師預計為增加130.2萬桶。此外,上週汽油庫存增加361萬桶,分析師預計為增加133.3萬桶。同時上週精煉油庫存增加432萬桶,分析師預估為增加160萬桶,建議投資者可於52.08美元/桶沽WTI原油(1月)期貨,目標價 49.22美元/桶,止蝕54.76美元/桶。

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2018-12-10
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2015-09-29
2015-09-21
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2015-08-31
2015-07-27
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2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
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2014-09-22
2014-09-15
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2014-08-26
2014-08-18
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2014-07-28
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2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
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