2018-11-12

美國原油庫存及產量全面利空 油價週三續跌

WTI原油(12月)期貨週二(11月6日)收跌0.54美元,或0.87%,報61.67美元/桶,盤中最低觸及61.20美元/桶,下跌最主要受美國原油庫存及產量數據全面利空所影響。

美國本週原油庫存和產量數據全面利空。根據美國能源信息署(EIA)週二(11月6日)公佈短期能源展望報告顯示,隨著供應增加,需求降速,明年燃料庫存將出現增長。同時EIA下調了今明兩年美國WTI及布倫特原油的價格預期。美國方面,EIA上調了美國今明兩年產量增速預期,同時下調了明年的需求增速預期。此外,EIA下調了2019年全球需求增速預期。EIA稱,今年全球液體燃料庫存將持穩,但明年將增加60萬桶/日。 

此外,EIA又公佈當週庫存報告顯示,截至11月2日當週,美國原油庫存增加578.3萬桶至4.318億桶,連續7週錄得增長,續刷2017年3月以來最長連漲紀錄,市場預估為增加243.3萬桶。更多數據顯示,上週俄克拉荷馬州庫欣原油庫存增加241.9萬桶,連續7週錄得增長,且創4月6日當週(31週)以來最大增幅。美國汽油庫存增加185.2萬桶,連續3週錄得下滑後再度錄得增長,且創8月10日當週(13週)以來最大增幅,市場預估為減少227.6萬桶。此外,上周美國國內原油產量增加40萬桶至1160萬桶/日。 

而在美國原油產能全開的影響下,其他OPEC 及非OPEC的產油國也開始陸續提高產量。沙特本月初曾承諾將繼續增產,從而填補伊朗因制裁而造成的供應缺口。沙特阿美和沙特能源部長法利赫在利雅得舉行的一場會議上表示,該國已經將石油產量提高到每天1070萬桶,接近歷史最高水平。法利赫還補充道,未來還可進一步增產,以彌補美國製裁伊朗能源產業帶來的供應缺口。

石油輸出國組織(OPEC)10月原油產量為3331萬桶/日,較9月上升39萬桶/日,是2016年12月來最高水平。這表明OPEC主要產油國正在履行進一步增加產量的承諾。12個參加減產的OPEC成員國10月減產執行率已經降至107%,9月為122%,這是OPEC自6月以來最接近100%的目標水平。不過由於阿聯酋等國產量大增,填補了伊朗原油供應空缺,從而令OPEC產量上升。10月阿聯酋原油產量環比增加20萬桶/日至325萬桶/日,預計該國原油產量將在年底達到350萬桶/日。 

俄羅斯方面,亦開始打算於明年初便提高產能。俄羅斯的原油日產量自6月起便一路上揚,主要用於填補美國制裁伊朗石油出口所帶來的空缺,而至今已達1,150萬桶,環比大增近45萬桶,並創下蘇聯解體以來的新高紀錄。而根據英國金融時報週三(11月7日)引述未具名消息人士報導,俄羅斯打算在明年初將原油日產能進一步拉高30萬桶、除非沙特阿拉伯簽定新的限產協議。

雖然沙特一直要俄羅斯考慮在新的一年減產以支撐油價,但俄羅斯原油業者過去兩年已因沙俄聯手減產大為受創,莫斯科對是否繼續減產相當猶豫。一名消息人士透露,俄羅斯有能力在幾個月內增添20-30萬桶/日,但一切還是要看石油輸出國組織(OPEC)盟友的決定。在全球產油國持續增產所影響下,料油價將持續承壓,建議投資者可於62.27美元/桶沽WTI原油(12月)期貨,目標價60.00美元/桶,止蝕65.12美元/桶。

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