2019-02-11

中國承諾了購買美國500萬噸大豆 巴西天氣推動大豆價格回升

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)大豆期貨週四收低,大豆(3月)期貨收低5-3/4美元,報9.15-3/4美元/蒲式耳,交易商稱主要受技術因素影響。不過再中國承諾了購買美國500萬噸大豆,以及巴西天氣影響下,料大豆價格將回升。

美國大豆產量是全球大豆產量近1/3。中國近年來大量進口大豆,但中美爆發貿易衝突後,中國即暫停進口美國大豆等農產品,以報復美國對中國其它產品的貿易壁壘。 在2018年底中美貿易戰暫時停火後,中國隨即立即進口了113萬噸的美國農產品。而在周四(1月31日)結束在華盛頓的兩日高級別經貿磋商後,由劉鶴與美國貿易談判代表萊特希澤進行的這一輪中美高級別貿易沒有達成具體協議,但美國白宮表示,劉鶴表示中國承諾購買美國500萬噸大豆。

雖然劉鶴代表中國承諾了購買美國500萬噸大豆,但根據中國海關總署數據顯示,去年12月中國進口的美國大豆只有約6.9萬噸,和去年同期的619萬噸相比,暴跌99%。2018年全年而言,中國進口的美國大豆總量為1,660萬噸,數量是2017年的一半,並且創2008年以來新低。中國對美國大豆需求不振,原因之一是當地非洲豬瘟橫行,有超過90萬頭豬隻遭到撲殺。中國農業農村部表示,去年12月的中國豬隻頭數,和去年同期相比,少了將近5%。中國農業部官員Tang Ke說,國際經驗顯示,要滅絕非洲豬瘟需要至少五、六年時間,是長期工作。 

產量方面,中國大豆產量預計為1600萬噸,高於早先預測值1580萬噸,上年為1530萬噸。2018/19年度中國大豆期初庫存數據從1880萬噸下調到1800萬噸。大豆進口量預計為8750萬噸,低於早先預測的8800萬噸,上年為9200萬噸。大豆供應總量預計為1.215億噸,低於早先預測的1.226億噸,上年為1.268億噸。

其他產地方面,巴西近期天氣不利對大豆作物的不利影響愈趨明顯,巴西第二大大豆生產州巴拉那州大豆農協會最新報告將該州的大豆產量預估從1,910萬噸下調至1,680萬噸,主要因為上個月天氣乾燥的影響。美國伊利諾州大豆玉米顧問公司(Soybean & Corn Advisor Inc.)作物分析師、南美農業專家麥克.科爾多涅博士(Michael Cordonnier)報告稱,幾乎主要的巴西大豆產區單產都將較去年下滑,視天氣不利的程度,單產滑落的幅度在5%-30%之間。

受巴西天氣影響,該國農業部上週將本年度(2018/19)的大豆產量預估從1.2億噸下調至1.188億噸,分析機構Safras & Mercado將巴西大豆產量預估從1.222億噸下調至1.157億噸,AgRural則是將大豆產量預估從1.214億噸下調至1.169億噸,德國漢堡油籽行業刊物《油世界》也將巴西大豆產量預估下調550萬噸至1.175億噸。 

南非本年度大豆種植面積則預估較上年度創新高的78.72萬公頃減少5.5%至74.36萬公頃,此將是史上的次高水平,不過將遠低於種植意願調查所預估再創新高的85.2萬公頃。大豆產量的最終預估為155萬噸,相比美國農業部的預估為157.5萬噸。兩大大豆產地普馬蘭加省與自由省的大豆種植面積預估分別為32萬公頃與31.5萬公頃,上年度的大豆產量分別為68萬噸與55萬噸,建議投資者可於9.24美元/蒲式耳購大豆(3月)期貨,目標價9.42美元/蒲式耳,止蝕8.98美元/蒲式耳。

日期 大市分析
2019-02-11
2019-01-29
2019-01-21
2019-01-14
2019-01-07
2018-12-31
2018-12-10
2018-11-19
2018-11-12
2018-10-29
2018-10-02
2018-09-24
2018-09-17
2018-09-10
2018-09-03
2018-08-28
2018-08-20
2018-08-13
2018-08-06
2018-07-31
2018-07-23
2018-07-16
2018-07-09
2018-07-03
2018-06-19
2018-06-11
2018-05-28
2018-05-21
2018-05-14
2018-05-07
2018-04-23
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
2018-04-03
2018-03-19
2018-03-12
2018-03-05
2018-02-26
2018-02-20
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
2016-05-09
2016-05-03
2016-04-27
2016-04-11
2016-04-05
2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
2011-10-28
2011-10-12
2011-10-08
2011-09-19
2011-09-03
2011-08-29
2011-08-22
2011-08-13
2011-08-08
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-05
2011-06-22
2011-06-13
2011-05-30
2011-05-23
2011-05-16
2011-05-09
2011-05-05
2011-04-27
2011-04-18
2011-04-04
2011-03-28
2011-03-21
2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
2010-07-20
2010-07-13
2010-07-05
2010-06-28
2010-06-21
2010-06-11
2010-05-17
2010-05-10
2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
2010-01-06
2009-11-27
2009-11-20
2009-11-16
2009-10-28
2009-10-05
2009-09-29
2009-09-07
2009-08-28
2009-08-21
2009-08-20
2009-08-17
2009-08-17
2009-08-14
2009-08-04
2009-07-24
2009-07-13
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-03
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-26
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-23
2009-06-23
2009-06-22
2009-06-15
2009-06-15
2009-06-12
2009-06-11
2009-06-11
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-01
2009-05-22
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-18
2009-05-07
2009-05-04
2009-04-30
2009-04-29
2009-04-29
2009-04-27
2009-04-27
2009-04-22
2009-04-22
2009-04-20
2009-04-17
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-27
2009-03-23
2009-03-23
2009-03-20
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-13
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-07
2009-03-03
2009-02-27
2009-02-20
2009-02-16
2009-02-16
2009-02-13
2009-02-12
2009-02-12
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-01-23
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-20
2009-01-16
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-09
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-06
2009-01-06
2009-01-02
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-23
2008-12-23
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-12
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-20
2008-11-20
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-17
2008-11-17
2008-11-14
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-11
2008-11-11
2008-11-11
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-07
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-03
2008-10-31
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-28
2008-10-28
2008-10-28
2008-10-24
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-17
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2006-06-23