2019-04-15

銅供需失均持續 料銅價將維持強勢

倫敦金屬交易所(LME)3個月期銅周三(4月10日)收跌0.4%,報6,464美元/噸,有分析認為主要因對經濟擔憂的影響。不過期,銅價格受供給收縮的影響,今年一季度出現了強勁上漲,漲幅高達9.5%,料在中國消費持續增張帶動下,銅價將維持強勢。

作為全球最大的銅礦生產國,智利受到了強雨侵襲,自然災害導致供給出現了明顯的收縮。智利國家銅業公司(Codelco)的數據顯示,其2月份銅產出下滑至11.51萬噸,創2016年1月份以來新低,並且預計今年全球銅市短缺30萬噸。

全球最大的銅礦,必和必拓Escondida礦場2月份供給同樣出現了大幅下降。其銅礦產出下降至8.21萬噸,創2017年4月份以來新低。2017年4月份,是Escondida深受史上最長罷工的困擾,因此產量大跌。如今,其供給創出了大罷工以來的最低產量,使得全球銅礦供不應求的預期再起。

不僅是智利,全球第二大銅生產國,秘魯也遭遇了銅礦供給擾動。五礦資源旗下的Las Bambas銅礦作為全球前十大銅礦之一,遭遇了長達近一個月的道路封鎖。當地社區社區Fuerabamba表示,要向五礦資源索要4,000萬秘魯索爾(合1200萬美元)的道路使用權,因為該公司利用這條道路將銅精礦從Las Bambas銅礦運往Matarani港口。秘魯政府雖然從中調和,但依舊沒能改變道路被封鎖的事實。五礦資源也因此不得不宣布銷售合同遭遇了不可抗力因素。 

銅市短缺正在吸引礦商增加投資。加拿大第一量子礦產公司(First Quantum Minerals Ltd.)計劃斥資3.27億美元擴充其位於巴拿馬的銅礦,預計五年內將銅的年產量提高37.5萬噸。包括全球最大上市銅礦商美國自由港麥克墨倫公司(Freeport-McMoRan Inc.)在內的幾家大型銅礦商則預計將在美國投資超過11億美元開發新的銅礦項目,其中自由港公司將斥資8.5億美元對旗下的亞利桑那銅礦進行擴張。 

需求方面,中國依然是全球精煉銅消費量佔比最高的國家。2018年前11個月中國精煉銅消費量達到1126萬噸,佔全球總消費量的51%。從增量來看,過去五年全球精煉銅消費增長幾乎全部來源於中國消費的增長,而其中主要有兩大消費板塊,電力投資和地產。

年初發布的《國家電網公司社會責任報告》對今年的電網投資規劃為5126 億,同比去年實際投資額4889億增加4.8%。考慮到去年由於去槓桿等原因,電力投資增速十分低迷僅在0.6%左右,投資完成額度甚至出現了負增長。因此,在今年基建補短板的大環境下,電力投資增速將會出現明顯回升。一季度一般都是電網投資的地點,二季度即將進入電網投資的旺季。從電力消費來說,銅市明顯受到了提振。 

聯合國旗下機構國際銅研究組(International Copper Study Group, ICSG)報告表示,2018年,全球精煉銅市場供給短缺39萬噸,相比2017年為短缺26.5萬噸。全球銅礦產量年增2.2%至2,052萬噸,主要受到最大產國智利產量從去年罷工中恢復而年增6%的影響,印尼、剛果與尚比亞的產量也分別增加5%、16%、8%;加拿大與美國的產量則分別年減10%與3%。由於今年銅市預期將出現供給短缺,並且應該會比去年更加吃緊,建議投資者可於6,446美元/噸購LME3個月期銅,目標價6,516美元/噸,止蝕6,360美元/噸。

日期 大市分析
2019-04-15
2019-04-09
2019-04-01
2019-03-18
2019-03-04
2019-02-25
2019-02-11
2019-01-29
2019-01-21
2019-01-14
2019-01-07
2018-12-31
2018-12-10
2018-11-19
2018-11-12
2018-10-29
2018-10-02
2018-09-24
2018-09-17
2018-09-10
2018-09-03
2018-08-28
2018-08-20
2018-08-13
2018-08-06
2018-07-31
2018-07-23
2018-07-16
2018-07-09
2018-07-03
2018-06-19
2018-06-11
2018-05-28
2018-05-21
2018-05-14
2018-05-07
2018-04-23
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
2018-04-03
2018-03-19
2018-03-12
2018-03-05
2018-02-26
2018-02-20
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
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2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
2016-05-09
2016-05-03
2016-04-27
2016-04-11
2016-04-05
2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
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2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
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2011-10-31
2011-10-28
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2011-10-08
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2011-09-03
2011-08-29
2011-08-22
2011-08-13
2011-08-08
2011-07-18
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2011-06-22
2011-06-13
2011-05-30
2011-05-23
2011-05-16
2011-05-09
2011-05-05
2011-04-27
2011-04-18
2011-04-04
2011-03-28
2011-03-21
2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
2010-07-20
2010-07-13
2010-07-05
2010-06-28
2010-06-21
2010-06-11
2010-05-17
2010-05-10
2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
2010-01-06
2009-11-27
2009-11-20
2009-11-16
2009-10-28
2009-10-05
2009-09-29
2009-09-07
2009-08-28
2009-08-21
2009-08-20
2009-08-17
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2009-08-14
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2009-07-24
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