2019-07-15

EIA庫存報告及颶風影響下 原油價格持續走強

美國WTI(8月)原油期貨週二(7月9日)收漲0.17美元,或0.3%,報57.83美元/桶,連續四個交易日上漲,最高觸及59.10美元/桶。分析認為颶風可能會橫掃美國墨西哥灣能源生產區域,以及美國原油庫存報告整體利多令油價獲得提振。

美國國家颶風中心表示美國墨西哥灣或形成兩種形式的熱帶氣旋,很可能變成一股颶風,吹襲路易斯安那與得克薩斯州沿岸,分析師認為颶風可能會橫掃美國墨西哥灣能源生產區域。受風暴威脅下,多間石油公司疏散離岸鑽油平台上的工作人員,令當地石油生產受到威脅。 

美國能源信息署(EIA)週三(7月10日)公佈報告顯示,截至7月5日當週,美國原油庫存減少949.9萬桶至4.59億桶,市場預估為減少356.7萬桶。更多數據顯示,上週俄克拉荷馬州庫欣原油庫存減少31萬桶。美國汽油庫存減少145.5萬,連續四周錄得下滑,市場預估為減少123.3桶。而美國精煉油庫存則增加372.9萬桶,連續兩週錄得增長,市場預估為增加143.3萬桶。此外,上周美國國內原油產量增加10萬桶至1230萬桶/日,連續兩週錄得增長。 

此外,EIA又發布短期能源展望報告顯示,將2019年全球原油需求增速預期下調15萬桶/日至107萬桶/日;將2020年全球原油需求增速預期下調2萬桶/日至140萬桶/日。同時預計2019年美國原油產量為1236萬桶/日,此前預期為1232萬桶/日。

另一方面,美聯儲主席鮑威爾週三(7月10日)表示,對貿易政策和全球經濟疲軟的擔憂“繼續打壓美國經濟前景”,美聯儲準備“採取適當行動”來維持長達十年的經濟擴張。這一講話支持本月晚些時候降息的預期。鮑威爾的言論傳來之後,美國利率期貨價格的走勢顯示,本月大幅降息50個基點的可能性增強。

OPEC方面,6月石油輸出國組織(OPEC)原油產量跌破3000萬桶/日大關,較5月水平下降17萬桶/日至2960萬桶/日,創2014年4月來最低。因沙特原油產量升幅並不足以填補伊朗和委內瑞拉等國的產量降幅。作為OPEC最大的產油國,6月沙特原油產量環比增加10萬桶/日至近980萬桶/日。依然遠低於1031.1萬桶/日的減產承諾水平。OPEC官方產量報告將在下週四7月11日正式公佈。與此同時,根據能源行業數據公司Kpler調查顯示,6月OPEC原油出口較5月增長76.1萬桶/日至2370萬桶/日。5月該組織原油出口曾降至2200萬桶/日下方。 

除了產量下降以外,中東緊張局勢依然為油價提供有效支撐。伊朗在周末已經承認正在提升濃縮鈾儲量,除非繼續執行之前達成的核協議。伊朗政府周日(7月7日)指,有關行動是要「對抗美國的經濟恐怖主義」,同時表示每60日他們將剔除一項協議承諾,直至有跡象顯示伊朗將不受美國制裁為止。美國總統特朗普在周日警告稱,德黑蘭方面對這樣的決定“最好小心點”,暗示這是獲取核武器的一個前兆,對此,國際能源信息署(IEA)認為美國的經濟制裁以及中東地區油輪遇襲只會給油市添加有限的不確定性,建議投資者可於58.35美元/桶購WTI原油(8月)期貨,目標價60.01美元/桶,止蝕56.31美元/桶。

 

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2019-07-15
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