2019-05-20

南美大豆豐產 美大豆庫存創有史以高度拖低豆價

CBOT大豆期货7月合约收高4美分,报每蒲式耳8.35-1/2美元,盘中最高升至8.48-1/4美元,升幅主要因美國天氣持續不利,影響播種作業。不過,在南美大豆確定進入豐產階段,以及中國大豆需求下降,料大豆價格仍將受壓。

南美大豆5月份正式塔入收成期,巴西跟阿根廷均兌現豐產預期。巴西大豆5月份正式進入定產階段,基本上已經確認為豐產。根據巴西諮詢機構AgRural預期,截至4月18日,巴西2018/19年度大豆收割完成92%,較之前一周增加4%,高於去年同期的91%,而巴西2018/2019年度總產量為1.146億噸,高於4月初預估的1.129億噸。

阿根廷布宜諾斯艾利斯穀物交易所發布的周度報告顯示,截至5月1日,阿根廷大豆收割進度達到59.3%。該交易所預測,阿根廷2018/2019年度大豆產量將達到5500萬噸,同比大增57%。

另一方面,5月份正式塔入美國大豆播種期,市場對於播種面積的關注度升溫,USDA3月底意向種植報告中預估今年大豆種植面積為8461萬英畝,相比去年下降500萬英畝,不過仍處於較高水平,如果5月天氣表現順利的話,美豆新作供應局面仍難言樂觀。

需求方面,全球最大的大豆消費國中國因非洲豬瘟和外圍環境等問題,美國農業部預計中國大豆進口量預計將繼續從17/18年的9410萬噸,進一步下降至8400萬噸,下降趨勢預計將持續至2020年度。

而根據中國海關數據,2018年大豆進口量為8805萬噸,同比減少7.8%。2019年3月大豆進口量為491.7萬噸,環比減少-13.3%,同比減少14.4%,大幅低於市場預期的630萬噸;一季度總到港量為1675.3萬噸,同比1957萬噸下降14.4%。據Cofeed實時調查統計, 4月份預估830萬噸,5月份預估720萬噸(上周780萬噸),6月份預估為850萬噸(上周預估870萬噸)。

與此同時,美國大豆的庫存量創出了有史以來前所未有的高度,大豆儲存設施告急,裝不下的豆子只能任憑其爛在地裡。據路易斯安那州立大學的數據分析,該州15%的油料作物(主要是大豆)都被爛在地裡,在大豆區密西西比州、阿肯色州、北達科他州、南達科他州、伊利諾伊州和印第安納州,也都是同樣的故事:已經要豐收的大豆被直接刨進地里當肥料,或者就直接堆在露天,任憑動物們享用然後漸漸腐爛。

此外,在伊利諾伊州中部,豆農需要付出較往常高出40%的儲存成本,而沿河的倉儲設施的價格比“內路”地區更高,因為這個區域生產的大豆更加依賴出口市場:在這些地區的豆農需要支付高達每蒲式耳60美分的高價,才能將過剩大豆儲存到年底,這個價格較去年同期翻翻。

受供應遠超需求所影響下,美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)公佈的數據顯示,截至5月7日當週,投資者持有的芝加哥大豆期貨和期權淨空頭倉位達到160553手,為2006年該數據有紀錄以來的最高水平;同時,空頭頭寸持倉增加6.4%至220453手,也達到歷史最高水平,建議投資者可於8.35-1/2美元/蒲式耳沽CBOT(5月)大豆期貨,目標價7.65-1/4美元/蒲式耳,止蝕8.71-1/2美元/蒲式耳。

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