2019-10-16

智利8月銅礦產創本年新高 中國需求疲軟拖累銅價

倫敦金屬交易所(LME)3個月期銅周二(10月8日)下跌0.8%,報每噸5,675.50美元,其中主要因2019年8月智利銅礦產量創下今年以來的新高,以及中國需求疲軟所影響。

智利銅業委員會(Cochilco)10月7日公布的數據顯示,2019年8月,智利銅礦產量為51.28萬噸,創下今年以來的新高,因智利國家銅業公司(Codelco)在今年第一季的罷工之後產量持續恢復的影響。8月份,智利銅礦產量較前月以及去年同期分別增加5.3%與11%;今年1-8月,智利銅礦產量則是年減0.4%至376萬噸。8月份,智利精煉銅產量20.5萬噸,也創下今年以來新高,較前月增加6%,但較去年同期減少3%;1-8月的精煉銅產量則是年減12.4%至145萬噸。

智利銅委會的數據顯示,智利國銅8月份產量年增9.3%至154,700公噸,但1-8月的銅產量年減8.4%至106萬噸。8月份,必和必拓(BHP)旗下全球最大銅礦埃斯康迪達(Escondida)的銅產量年減8.5%至770,800公噸,全球第三大銅礦科亞瓦西(Collahuasi)銅產量年增0.5%至352,500公噸。英美資源(Anglo American Plc)以及嘉能可(Glencore Plc)各自持有科亞瓦西銅礦44%股權,由三井物產(Mitsui & Co)領銜的日本財團則持有12%。

智利國銅執行長的阿萊內達(Octavio Araneda)表示,該公司下半年的銅產量最多將可以提高30%,因公司解決了生產上的一個技術問題,以及公司旗下最大礦丘基卡馬塔銅礦(Chuquicamata)由露天轉向地下開採之後,礦石品位提高的影響。該公司上半年的銅產量年減13%至71萬噸,主要受到暴雨、礦石品位下滑,以及為期兩週的工人罷工的影響。另一方面,智利銅委會則是預估該國今年銅產量將持平於上年度的創新高水平達到583萬噸。 

需求方面,中國是全球最大的銅消費國,佔全球銅消費半數比重,由於大陸需求受到中美貿易戰的衝擊,導致今年上半年全球銅消費年減1.5%至1,100萬噸,中國今年銅表觀需求量年增3%,但精煉銅的淨進口量年減16%。此外,中國海關最新統計數字顯示,2019年8月份中國未鍛軋銅及銅材進口量為40.4萬噸,1-8月為309.4萬噸。與去年同期相比減少10.8%。另一方面,國家統計局周一公佈最新中國採購經理指數(PMI),九月製造業PMI報49.8,按月回升0.3個百分點,雖然仍處於榮枯線下。

聯合國旗下機構國際銅研究組(International Copper Study Group, ICSG)報告表示,今年上半年,全球銅礦產量年減1.4%至992萬噸,主要因印尼產量年減55%的影響,因位於印尼的全球第二大銅礦格雷斯堡銅礦地下礦的投產時程受到拖延。 雖然今年上半年全球銅礦與精煉銅產量都呈現下滑,但此對銅價幾乎未帶來支撐,主要原因是需求下滑的速度也跟產量下滑的速度一樣快。 

澳洲工業部的報告預估,今年平均銅價將較去年的每噸6,525美元(每磅2.96美元)下跌9%至每噸5,938美元(每磅2.69美元),但明後兩年價格有望復甦,現時建議投資者可於5695美元/噸沽LME 三個月期銅,目標價5593美元/噸,止蝕5752美元/噸。

日期 大市分析
2019-10-16
2019-09-30
2019-09-23
2019-09-16
2019-09-09
2019-09-02
2019-08-26
2019-08-26
2019-08-19
2019-08-05
2019-07-29
2019-07-22
2019-07-15
2019-07-03
2019-06-24
2019-06-17
2019-06-12
2019-05-30
2019-05-20
2019-05-14
2019-05-06
2019-04-29
2019-04-23
2019-04-15
2019-04-09
2019-04-01
2019-03-18
2019-03-04
2019-02-25
2019-02-11
2019-01-29
2019-01-21
2019-01-14
2019-01-07
2018-12-31
2018-12-10
2018-11-19
2018-11-12
2018-10-29
2018-10-02
2018-09-24
2018-09-17
2018-09-10
2018-09-03
2018-08-28
2018-08-20
2018-08-13
2018-08-06
2018-07-31
2018-07-23
2018-07-16
2018-07-09
2018-07-03
2018-06-19
2018-06-11
2018-05-28
2018-05-21
2018-05-14
2018-05-07
2018-04-23
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
2018-04-03
2018-03-19
2018-03-12
2018-03-05
2018-02-26
2018-02-20
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
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2017-05-15
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2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
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2016-06-27
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2016-03-15
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2016-02-29
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2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
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2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
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2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
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2012-10-29
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