2019-08-19

巴西豆產或創新高 美大豆需求疲軟拖累豆價

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)大豆期貨週三(8月14日)下跌,CBOT(11月)大豆合約收低11美分,報8.78美元/蒲式耳,有分析稱因巴西大豆產量達創新高以及美大豆出口需求疲弱。

巴西是最大的大豆出口國,巴西2019/20年度大豆產量預估將年增600萬噸或5%達到創新高的1.23億噸,巴西國內的大豆消費量預估年增1.5%至4,660萬噸,巴西大豆出口量則預估略減0.5%至7,650萬噸,此較前月的預估則是上調了50萬噸。巴西豆粕的出口量則預估將年減5.6%至1,520萬噸,主要因為國內豆粕需求預期將年增4.3%至1,900萬噸的影響。 

第三大大豆出口國阿根廷2019/20年度的大豆產量預估將年減5.3%至5,300萬噸,但大豆出口量則預估將年增3.2%至800萬噸,主要因為中美貿易爭端令中國將大豆進口需求轉向南美的影響。2019/20年度,阿根廷豆粕出口量也預估將年增9%至3,050萬噸。

美國農業部數據顯示,美國2019/20年度大豆產量則預估將年減19%至1億噸,主要因為今年春天的播種季節天氣不利導致種植面積下滑的影響,不過美國農業部(USDA)仍預期將出現7.55億英斗的過剩黃豆,主要因美國阿肯色州、肯塔基州、田納西州的黃豆產量將打破歷史紀錄。

有大豆農夫表示很擔心貿易談判,期盼貿易關稅能立刻解決,這傷害農作價格、削弱需求。中美大打貿易戰,年初許多黃豆農人原本打算改種玉米,但是豪雨不斷讓他們被迫放棄。此外,有農夫表示先前想種更多玉米,但是今年春天來得晚,天氣又濕冷,栽種的玉米面積不如預期。

出口方面,美國大豆截至8月8日為止的一週出口檢定量為944,238公噸,佔穀物出口總量的39%;較前週減少9%,較上年同期增加62%,最大出口市場為中國中國(468,230公噸),佔50%比重。自去年9月起的2018/19年度,美國大豆出口檢定量年減22%至42,325,866公噸,達成美國農業部預估出口量4,627萬噸的91%,相比上年度美國大豆出口量為5,795萬噸。

此外,美國大豆出口量則預估將年增4.4%至4,830萬噸,但此遠低於中美貿易衝突爆發前2016/17年度的5,900萬噸,與2017/18年度的5,800萬噸。2018/19年度,美國大豆出口量預估將年減20%至4,630萬噸。

需求方面,美國農業部最新報告表示自10月起的2019/20銷售年度,全球大豆貿易量預估將年增1%至1.49億噸,因預期中國的大豆進口將有所恢復的影響。中國佔全球大豆貿易的六成比重,本年度因非洲豬瘟疫情爆發導致飼料需求減少,大豆進口量也因此較上年度的9,410萬噸減逾千萬噸或12%至8,300萬噸,但新年度預期將略為恢復至8,500萬噸。

中國減少採購美國大豆後,日前逾4千噸俄羅斯大豆經南京海關隸屬南通海關完成檢驗檢疫後通關放行。這是中俄兩國《關於深化中俄大豆合作的發展規劃》簽署以來首批入境的俄羅斯大豆。該規畫是中國國家主席習近平6月初訪問俄羅斯時,在兩國元首共同見證下簽署的一系列合作文件之一。而在第12輪中美經貿高級別磋商正式登場前,中國海關總署於7月29日公告,允許俄羅斯全境大豆進口。有分析指,中國已成俄羅斯大豆主要出口國,占俄羅斯出口總額93%,今年7月俄羅斯對中國的大豆出口還持續加速。為滿足中國市場的「海量需求」,俄羅斯將主動調節農業生產結構,提高大豆產量,建設投資者可於8.71美元/蒲式耳沽CBOT(11月)大豆,目標價8.41美元/蒲式耳,止蝕8.96美元/蒲式耳

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