2018-10-12

市場政經變數多 內需股抗跌力強

十一黃金周期間,美國長期國債孳息率創新高,引發環球股市震蕩甚至美股也呈現急挫,而A股市場甫一復市也受衝擊,加上國際貨幣基金組織出於貿易因素下調中國經濟增長預期,令市場觀望情緒濃重。我們預計美中關係短期內仍膠著,宜避開相關股份,而一些內需板塊料受衝擊較少,值得做避險之選。

據商務部監測,十一黃金周七天,全國銷售和餐飲企業實現銷售額1.4萬億元(人民幣,下同),日均消費額較去年同期增長9.5%,較去年逾10%的增速回落。而國內遊客人數及收入增速亦是十年來首次放緩至雙位數以下,引發消費收縮的擔憂。但實際上,去年十一和中秋是合併為連假,今年則分開為一個短假期和一個長假期,會對旅遊出行計劃帶來分流;加上居民對消費體驗的要求提升,黃金周假期人流擁擠,部分居民可能更願意選擇其他時間出行。如果從9月的財新服務業PMI數據來看,較上月回升至53.1,為3個月高點,而近三個月的消費者物價指數(CPI)保持2%以上的溫和、健康增幅,與去年大致相若,消費品零售增速也仍處於高單位數增幅。總體來說,隨經濟增長有所放緩,但消費需求仍然旺盛。中央近期更明確表示,將積極減稅降費,節用裕民,促進消費,相信未來內需消費板塊仍有較大增長空間。

飲食板塊方面,可留意統一中國(220.HK)、康師傅(322.HK)等龍頭,上半年已恢復增長,毛利率亦有所擴闊。其中康師傅調整產品結構見效,在高端方便麵銷售帶動下,方便麵業務收入按年增長8.4%,集團通過IP合作、場景及運動行銷,提升品牌形象,飲品業務同比增長9.19%,勝預期,下半年增長可期。而統一中國股價在經過一輪整固調整後,呈現突破格局。這些股份在市況波動情況下,具防守能力,不妨擇機吸納。此外,也可留意達利食品(3799.HK),去年推出豆奶品牌豆本豆,請女星孫儷代言,並主打健康、營養、親民的品牌形象,帶動上半年植物蛋白飲料和含乳飲料收入升72%,料在健康飲食的風潮下,下半年豆奶業務仍會有不俗增長。內地業務增速不俗的維他奶(345.HK)今年以來跑贏大市,抗跌能力強,逢低可吸納。

日用品股份方面,可留意恆安國際(1044.HK),此前受困於毛利率受壓,股價由年初的88.7回落逾25%,近期有反彈跡象,現時估值約往績市盈率18倍,息率約3.8厘,估值吸引。因木漿價格走升,集團進一步調升紙巾價格,下半年相關產品毛利率有望走升。不妨關注。

 

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日期 大市分析
2018-10-12
2018-09-28
2018-09-21
2018-09-14
2018-09-07
2018-08-31
2018-08-24
2018-08-17
2018-08-10
2018-08-03
2018-07-27
2018-07-20
2018-07-13
2018-06-29
2018-06-22
2018-06-15
2018-06-08
2018-06-01
2018-05-25
2018-05-18
2018-05-11
2018-05-04
2018-04-27
2018-04-20
2018-04-13
2018-03-29
2018-03-23
2018-03-16
2018-03-09
2018-03-02
2018-02-23
2018-02-15
2018-02-09
2018-02-02
2018-01-26
2018-01-19
2018-01-12
2017-12-29
2017-12-15
2017-12-08
2017-12-01
2017-11-24
2017-11-17
2017-11-10
2017-11-03
2017-10-27
2017-10-20
2017-10-13
2017-09-29
2017-09-22
2017-09-15
2017-09-08
2017-09-01
2017-08-25
2017-08-18
2017-08-11
2017-08-04
2017-07-28
2017-07-21
2017-07-14
2017-06-30
2017-06-23
2017-06-16
2017-06-09
2017-06-02
2017-05-26
2017-05-19
2017-05-12
2017-05-05
2017-04-28
2017-04-21
2017-04-13
2017-03-31
2017-03-24
2017-03-17
2017-03-10
2017-03-03
2017-02-24
2017-02-17
2017-02-10
2017-02-03
2017-01-27
2017-01-20
2017-01-13
2016-12-30
2016-12-29
2016-12-16
2016-12-09
2016-12-02
2016-11-25
2016-11-18
2016-11-11
2016-11-04
2016-10-28
2016-10-14
2016-09-30
2016-09-23
2016-09-09
2016-09-02
2016-08-26
2016-08-19
2016-08-12
2016-08-05
2016-07-29
2016-07-22
2016-07-15
2016-06-30
2016-06-24
2016-06-17
2016-06-10
2016-06-03
2016-05-27
2016-05-20
2016-05-13
2016-05-06
2016-04-29
2016-04-22
2016-04-15
2016-04-07
2016-04-01
2016-03-24
2016-03-18
2016-03-11
2016-03-04
2016-02-26
2016-02-19
2016-02-12
2016-02-05
2016-01-29
2016-01-22
2016-01-15
2015-12-31
2015-12-24
2015-12-18
2015-12-11
2015-12-04
2015-11-27
2015-11-20
2015-11-13
2015-11-06
2015-10-30
2015-10-23
2015-10-16
2015-10-02
2015-09-25
2015-09-18
2015-09-11
2015-09-04
2015-08-28
2015-08-14
2015-08-07
2015-07-31
2015-07-24
2015-07-17
2015-07-03
2015-06-26
2015-06-19
2015-06-12
2015-06-05
2015-05-29
2015-05-22
2015-05-15
2015-05-08
2015-04-30
2015-04-24
2015-04-17
2015-04-10
2015-03-27
2015-03-20
2015-03-13
2015-03-06
2015-02-27
2015-02-13
2015-02-06
2015-01-30
2015-01-23
2015-01-16
2015-01-02
2014-12-24
2014-12-19
2014-12-12
2014-12-05
2014-11-28
2014-11-21
2014-11-14
2014-11-07
2014-10-31
2014-10-24
2014-10-17
2014-10-10
2014-09-26
2014-09-12
2014-09-05
2014-08-29
2014-08-22
2014-08-15
2014-08-08
2014-08-01
2014-07-25
2014-07-18
2014-07-11
2014-06-27
2014-06-20
2014-06-13
2014-06-06
2014-05-30
2014-05-23
2014-05-16
2014-05-09
2014-05-02
2014-04-25
2014-04-17
2014-04-11
2014-03-28
2014-03-21
2014-03-14
2014-03-07
2014-02-28
2014-02-21
2014-02-14
2014-02-07
2014-01-30
2014-01-24
2014-01-17
2014-01-10
2014-01-03
2013-12-27
2013-12-20
2013-12-13
2013-12-06
2013-11-29
2013-11-22
2013-11-08
2013-11-01
2013-10-25
2013-10-18
2013-10-11
2013-10-04
2013-09-27
2013-09-19
2013-09-13
2013-09-06
2013-08-30
2013-08-23
2013-08-16
2013-08-09
2013-08-02
2013-07-26
2013-07-19
2013-07-12
2013-06-14
2013-05-31
2013-05-03
2013-04-26
2013-04-19
2013-04-05
2013-03-15
2013-03-08
2013-03-01
2013-02-22
2013-02-15
2013-02-08
2013-02-01
2013-01-25
2013-01-11
2013-01-04
2012-12-28
2012-12-21
2012-12-14
2012-12-02
2012-11-23
2012-11-16
2012-11-09
2012-11-02
2012-10-12
2012-10-05
2012-09-21
2012-09-14
2012-09-07
2012-08-31
2012-08-24
2012-08-10
2012-08-03
2012-07-27
2012-07-20
2012-07-13
2012-07-06
2012-06-29
2012-06-22
2012-06-15
2012-06-08
2012-06-01
2012-05-25
2012-05-18
2012-05-17
2012-05-11
2012-05-04
2012-04-27
2012-04-20
2012-04-13
2012-03-23
2012-03-20
2012-03-16
2012-03-09
2012-03-02
2012-02-24
2012-02-17
2012-02-10
2012-02-03
2012-01-27
2012-01-20
2012-01-13
2012-01-06
2011-12-30
2011-12-23
2011-12-19
2011-12-09
2011-12-05
2011-11-25
2011-11-18
2011-11-11
2011-11-04
2011-10-28
2011-10-21
2011-10-14
2011-10-07
2011-09-30
2011-09-23
2011-09-16
2011-09-09
2011-09-02
2011-08-26
2011-08-19
2011-08-15
2011-08-05
2011-08-05
2011-08-01
2011-07-22
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-06
2011-07-04
2011-06-27
2011-06-17
2011-06-10
2011-06-03
2011-05-27
2011-05-20
2011-05-13
2011-04-29