2019-01-18

政策及時調整,風險胃納回升

港股的變化速度仍是相當快,2019年首個交易日恐慌急挫,市場還憂慮港股將急速轉壞,再下試去年低位24500,不過轉眼間,恆指已回升至26000的水平,所謂敗也信心,成也信心,雖然環球經濟的開局並不理想,但主要經濟體願意調整政策,讓市場重建信心基礎,預期這一輪的反彈仍有望延續。

去年,環球貿易衝突頻繁,逐漸削弱投資及消費信心,企業盈利前景也蒙上陰影。另一方面,聯儲局加息縮表,以及歐央退出買債,金融市場的流動性更形緊張,這是去年第四季美股大跌,強勢科技股遭拋售的根本原因。當市場意識到貿易、企業及經濟的環境會進一步惡化,投資信心便大幅走弱,繼而導致市場動盪。 

重建市場信心並不容易,必須要及時和到位,這一次算是做到了。首先,投資者最關注的聯儲局,2019年初便有更明確的政策調整,包括鮑威爾在內的聯儲局理事,先後表明局方的加息立場具彈性,未來會更關注外圍經濟形勢,而更重要的是,對於縮表的速度與規模,也有商量餘地。聯儲局仍對美國經濟有信心,但將更重視市場聲音及外圍狀況,這令市場擔憂貨幣政策過度收緊的疑慮大為紓緩。

此外,內地的政策調整行動亦非常果斷及迅速。月初,內地的PMI及進出口數據都遠遜預期,一時間市場對中國的經濟前景轉向悲觀。就在此時,中國國家發改委、人民銀行和財政部三個中央部委聯合舉行新聞發布會,高調表明今年將加大力度穩增長,重點包括國企改革、減稅降費、基建投資和定向寬鬆,更準確地刺激經濟,抵銷今年預期的經濟下行壓力。

看來,投資者已感受到中美兩國今年都會調整貨幣政策,美元轉弱、債息回升、科技股反彈,都反映市場的風險胃納是在上升。今年,人民幣的走勢會更穩定,而外資對A股的興趣正不斷增強,去年外資淨流入A股達3000億人民幣,預期今年會倍增。內地股市若成功尋底,有利港股進一步轉強。

中美貿易談判仍在軌道之中,即使達致全面協議有難度,不再惡化也是合理預期,其他枝節摩擦只是雜音,不會破壞貿易止戰的大局。港股近期由低位回升,不單是挾淡倉的技術性因素,更有基金部署建倉的手影,從權重股到題材股;由中小股到新股,都見到輪流推升的現象。英國脫歐已遭大比數否決,金融市場反表現冷靜,股市表面上仍有不少逆風,但投資信心反而更強,股市回暖的日子就在眼前。

下載

日期 大市分析
2019-01-18
2019-01-11
2018-12-28
2018-12-21
2018-12-14
2018-12-07
2018-11-30
2018-11-23
2018-11-16
2018-11-09
2018-11-02
2018-10-26
2018-10-19
2018-10-12
2018-09-28
2018-09-21
2018-09-14
2018-09-07
2018-08-31
2018-08-24
2018-08-17
2018-08-10
2018-08-03
2018-07-27
2018-07-20
2018-07-13
2018-06-29
2018-06-22
2018-06-15
2018-06-08
2018-06-01
2018-05-25
2018-05-18
2018-05-11
2018-05-04
2018-04-27
2018-04-20
2018-04-13
2018-03-29
2018-03-23
2018-03-16
2018-03-09
2018-03-02
2018-02-23
2018-02-15
2018-02-09
2018-02-02
2018-01-26
2018-01-19
2018-01-12
2017-12-29
2017-12-15
2017-12-08
2017-12-01
2017-11-24
2017-11-17
2017-11-10
2017-11-03
2017-10-27
2017-10-20
2017-10-13
2017-09-29
2017-09-22
2017-09-15
2017-09-08
2017-09-01
2017-08-25
2017-08-18
2017-08-11
2017-08-04
2017-07-28
2017-07-21
2017-07-14
2017-06-30
2017-06-23
2017-06-16
2017-06-09
2017-06-02
2017-05-26
2017-05-19
2017-05-12
2017-05-05
2017-04-28
2017-04-21
2017-04-13
2017-03-31
2017-03-24
2017-03-17
2017-03-10
2017-03-03
2017-02-24
2017-02-17
2017-02-10
2017-02-03
2017-01-27
2017-01-20
2017-01-13
2016-12-30
2016-12-29
2016-12-16
2016-12-09
2016-12-02
2016-11-25
2016-11-18
2016-11-11
2016-11-04
2016-10-28
2016-10-14
2016-09-30
2016-09-23
2016-09-09
2016-09-02
2016-08-26
2016-08-19
2016-08-12
2016-08-05
2016-07-29
2016-07-22
2016-07-15
2016-06-30
2016-06-24
2016-06-17
2016-06-10
2016-06-03
2016-05-27
2016-05-20
2016-05-13
2016-05-06
2016-04-29
2016-04-22
2016-04-15
2016-04-07
2016-04-01
2016-03-24
2016-03-18
2016-03-11
2016-03-04
2016-02-26
2016-02-19
2016-02-12
2016-02-05
2016-01-29
2016-01-22
2016-01-15
2015-12-31
2015-12-24
2015-12-18
2015-12-11
2015-12-04
2015-11-27
2015-11-20
2015-11-13
2015-11-06
2015-10-30
2015-10-23
2015-10-16
2015-10-02
2015-09-25
2015-09-18
2015-09-11
2015-09-04
2015-08-28
2015-08-14
2015-08-07
2015-07-31
2015-07-24
2015-07-17
2015-07-03
2015-06-26
2015-06-19
2015-06-12
2015-06-05
2015-05-29
2015-05-22
2015-05-15
2015-05-08
2015-04-30
2015-04-24
2015-04-17
2015-04-10
2015-03-27
2015-03-20
2015-03-13
2015-03-06
2015-02-27
2015-02-13
2015-02-06
2015-01-30
2015-01-23
2015-01-16
2015-01-02
2014-12-24
2014-12-19
2014-12-12
2014-12-05
2014-11-28
2014-11-21
2014-11-14
2014-11-07
2014-10-31
2014-10-24
2014-10-17
2014-10-10
2014-09-26
2014-09-12
2014-09-05
2014-08-29
2014-08-22
2014-08-15
2014-08-08
2014-08-01
2014-07-25
2014-07-18
2014-07-11
2014-06-27
2014-06-20
2014-06-13
2014-06-06
2014-05-30
2014-05-23
2014-05-16
2014-05-09
2014-05-02
2014-04-25
2014-04-17
2014-04-11
2014-03-28
2014-03-21
2014-03-14
2014-03-07
2014-02-28
2014-02-21
2014-02-14
2014-02-07
2014-01-30
2014-01-24
2014-01-17
2014-01-10
2014-01-03
2013-12-27
2013-12-20
2013-12-13
2013-12-06
2013-11-29
2013-11-22
2013-11-08
2013-11-01
2013-10-25
2013-10-18
2013-10-11
2013-10-04
2013-09-27
2013-09-19
2013-09-13
2013-09-06
2013-08-30
2013-08-23
2013-08-16
2013-08-09
2013-08-02
2013-07-26
2013-07-19
2013-07-12
2013-06-14
2013-05-31
2013-05-03
2013-04-26
2013-04-19
2013-04-05
2013-03-15
2013-03-08
2013-03-01
2013-02-22
2013-02-15
2013-02-08
2013-02-01
2013-01-25
2013-01-11
2013-01-04
2012-12-28
2012-12-21
2012-12-14
2012-12-02
2012-11-23
2012-11-16
2012-11-09
2012-11-02
2012-10-12
2012-10-05
2012-09-21
2012-09-14
2012-09-07
2012-08-31
2012-08-24
2012-08-10
2012-08-03
2012-07-27
2012-07-20
2012-07-13
2012-07-06
2012-06-29
2012-06-22
2012-06-15
2012-06-08
2012-06-01
2012-05-25
2012-05-18
2012-05-17
2012-05-11
2012-05-04
2012-04-27
2012-04-20
2012-04-13
2012-03-23
2012-03-20
2012-03-16
2012-03-09
2012-03-02
2012-02-24
2012-02-17
2012-02-10
2012-02-03
2012-01-27
2012-01-20
2012-01-13
2012-01-06
2011-12-30
2011-12-23
2011-12-19
2011-12-09
2011-12-05
2011-11-25
2011-11-18
2011-11-11
2011-11-04
2011-10-28
2011-10-21
2011-10-14
2011-10-07
2011-09-30
2011-09-23
2011-09-16
2011-09-09
2011-09-02
2011-08-26
2011-08-19
2011-08-15
2011-08-05
2011-08-05
2011-08-01
2011-07-22
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-06
2011-07-04
2011-06-27
2011-06-17
2011-06-10
2011-06-03
2011-05-27
2011-05-20
2011-05-13
2011-04-29