2019-06-12

大量的降雨導緻美國種植落後 CBOT大豆週二收高

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)大豆期貨週二(6月4日)收高,CBOT(7月)大豆期貨收報8.816美元/蒲式耳,升2.6美分。此前美國農業部稱,大量的降雨導緻美國種植遠遠落後於同期平均水平。豆粕和豆油期貨也收高。

近期,受北美大範圍降水的影響,對美國農作物的種植產生了負面預期。在此之前,美國大豆、玉米、小麥等相關農產品的期貨價格都處於下行通道中。受降雨消息影響,供給預期減少,大豆、玉米、小麥等農產品隨即開啟了新一輪的上行情漲。 

根據美國農業部(USDA)發布的截止6月2日週度農作物種植進度報告數據顯示,今年大豆、玉米、小麥這三類農產品大幅減產的概率非常高。其中黃豆作物的播種進度由前週的29%增加至39%,低於去年同期的86%,同期五年平均值的79%,以及分析師預估的42%。此外,根據3月份的種植意向調查,當時美國農戶預計播種8,460萬英畝的黃豆,如今播種進度落後,黃豆最終的播種面積可能也不如預期

根據USDA的豆農的種植意願統計,今年的播種面積同比減少了僅5%,這個變化對量級並無影響,播種速度還是最主要的影響因素。從歷史經驗來看,雖然通常在6月上旬播種速度可以達到峰值,但從目前算起到播種窗口結束,還大概能夠完成45%,以這個數據計算,預計最終完成的播種面積約75%。 

最終,今年大豆的播種面積的完成度可以達到80%,忽略不同產區、品種的畝產差異,那麼相比預期產量,今年美國大豆可能的減產約12%。如果以2017年美國大豆1.2億噸的產量來計算,因減產導致的供給缺口約1440萬噸。

當然也有利好的消息,玉米的播種窗口關閉時間早於大豆,同樣受惡劣天氣影響,玉米播種速度也被減慢了。如果玉米在播種窗口關閉時完成度不夠,那農民有可能轉去種植大豆來彌補損失。假設這部分農民可以承擔5%的大豆播種面積。但鑑於黃豆在中美貿易戰中受創最深,預計也會影響到農戶轉種的意願。

此外,USDA又預期巴西大豆產量在1.17億噸左右,略低於上年度的1.22億噸。不過,阿根廷大豆產量在5500萬噸,明顯高於上一年度的3780萬噸。另一方面,隨著收割進入尾聲,布宜諾斯艾利斯交易所預期,截至5月29日,阿根廷大豆收穫進度達到90.7%,上週為85%。全國大豆單產降低到了3.45噸/公頃,但是依然高於前歷史最高紀錄。阿根廷大豆產量將超過5600萬噸,比上年產量3510萬噸高出59.5%。迄今為止,還有150萬公頃大豆有待收割,其中40%位於東北部地區,目前該地區受到洪水影響。僅僅巴西和阿根廷兩國的大豆產量便增加了8.26%,

與此同時,美國農業部預計全球大豆消費量為3.49億噸,與上一年度的3.39億噸相差不多,消費增幅明顯低於產量增幅,導致全球大豆期末庫存提高至1.0717億噸,較上一年度增加812萬噸。由此可見,全球大豆供給充裕的格局在未來一年內很難得到緩解,建議投資者可於8.59-1/2美元/蒲式耳沽CBOT(7月)大豆期貨,目標價8.29-1/4美元/蒲式耳,止蝕9.28-3/4美元/蒲式耳。

 

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