2019-01-21

受供應短缺影響 鈀金再創歷史新高

鈀金價格週四(1月17日)觸及紀錄高位,現貨鈀金小升0.1%報1,360美元/盎司,稍早觸及1,366.50美元/盎司的紀錄高位。 鈀金價格自8月中旬觸及低位以來,已經上漲逾60%,並於2018年12月初超過金價,為16年以來首見。

鈀金為2018年最熱門的金屬,其中價格當前仍主要受益於歐洲車市從柴油車轉向汽油車的變化,而中國在貿易戰下轉向內需鼓勵汽車消費也是一大利多。大陸國家發展改革委副主任寧吉(吉吉)1月8日表示,汽車產品已經從城市市場向農村市場下探,發改委正在考慮制定相關政策鼓勵這一層級消費者的購車等消費行為。此外,在外商投資方面,大陸也將擴大鼓勵外商投資的範圍,包括新能源汽車、動力電池等或將成為外商投資重大項目。

2015年福斯汽車(Volkswagen)的作弊事件令歐洲柴油車市佔快速下滑,汽油車市場受益,用於汽油車的鈀金也因此水漲船高。福斯汽車被發現安裝尾氣排放作弊軟件的車輛均使用2.0升的柴油引擎,分析師認為這打擊了消費者購買柴油車的意願,並會將購車意向轉至汽油車。鉑金用於柴油車的觸媒轉化器,佔總需求逾四成比重,首飾需求也佔了四成比重;鈀金則是用於汽油車的觸媒轉化器,佔總需求3/4比重。

產量方面,鈀金的生產主要來自南非和俄羅斯。根據貴金屬咨詢機構GFMS的報告預估,兩大鈀金生產國俄羅斯與南非的產量都將下滑,其中俄羅斯鈀金產量預估將從上年度的272.8萬盎司減至268萬盎司,南非鈀金產量則從上年度的252.9萬盎司降至241.7萬盎司,美國產量則可望從89.6萬盎司增加至96.7萬盎司。此外,GFMS的報告又預估2018年鈀金市場預期將供給短缺132.7萬盎司,其中鈀金需求量預估年增14.9萬盎司或1.5%至1,029.7萬盎司,但供應量則預估僅年增2.1萬盎司或0.2%至896.9萬盎司。 

世界鉑金投資協會(World Platinum Investment Council, WPIC)報告表示,鉑金價格遠低於鈀金,將可望成為帶動鉑金需求的一項有利因素,因汽車生產商可能提高鉑金在三元觸媒轉化器(鉑鈀銠)當中的比重。報告指出,在1990年代末期,由於供應短缺造成鈀金價格飆漲,汽車生產商就因此調整了觸媒轉化器當中的鉑鈀比例,也帶動鉑金需求在2000年之後明顯增長。 不過,有分析師表示:「我不認為汽車製造商會將鈀金換成鉑金,除非他們認為鈀金的價格將居高不下,更換金屬並不是一個快速變換的過程。」而WPIC報告亦指出根據歷史顯示,鉑鈀兩者之間的明顯溢價要持續18個月以上時間,才會促使汽車生產商調整鉑鈀比例。

瑞士鑄金商MKS PAMP Grou發生最新報告表示,預期今年鈀金價格將繼續走高,高點可望達到每盎司1,420美元,全年均價預估為每盎司1,360美元。報告表示,2018年鈀金再度成為表現最好的貴金屬,全年上漲17%,累計過去兩年以來鈀金價格已經上漲一倍。鑑於鈀金市場的供給短缺已經持續了好幾年,今年鈀金的價格表現也不會差,即使中國大陸的汽車市場需求可能會稍微減弱,但也完全不會影響到鈀金市場強勁的基本面,建議投資者可於1324.1美元/盎司購期鈀(3月),目標價1407.5美元/盎司,止蝕1297.9美元/盎司。

日期 大市分析
2019-01-21
2019-01-14
2019-01-07
2018-12-31
2018-12-10
2018-11-19
2018-11-12
2018-10-29
2018-10-02
2018-09-24
2018-09-17
2018-09-10
2018-09-03
2018-08-28
2018-08-20
2018-08-13
2018-08-06
2018-07-31
2018-07-23
2018-07-16
2018-07-09
2018-07-03
2018-06-19
2018-06-11
2018-05-28
2018-05-21
2018-05-14
2018-05-07
2018-04-23
2018-04-16
2018-04-09
2018-04-03
2018-03-19
2018-03-12
2018-03-05
2018-02-26
2018-02-20
2018-02-09
2018-02-05
2018-01-29
2018-01-22
2018-01-15
2018-01-08
2017-12-28
2017-12-21
2017-12-18
2017-11-27
2017-11-20
2017-11-13
2017-11-06
2017-10-30
2017-10-16
2017-10-09
2017-10-04
2017-09-25
2017-09-11
2017-09-04
2017-08-28
2017-08-21
2017-08-08
2017-07-31
2017-07-17
2017-07-10
2017-06-26
2017-06-19
2017-06-13
2017-06-05
2017-05-29
2017-05-22
2017-05-15
2017-05-08
2017-05-02
2017-04-24
2017-04-10
2017-04-03
2017-03-28
2017-03-20
2017-03-13
2017-03-06
2017-02-27
2017-02-20
2017-02-13
2017-02-06
2017-02-01
2017-01-16
2017-01-10
2017-01-10
2017-01-03
2016-12-19
2016-12-05
2016-11-14
2016-11-07
2016-11-01
2016-10-24
2016-10-17
2016-10-11
2016-10-03
2016-09-26
2016-09-19
2016-09-12
2016-09-05
2016-08-29
2016-08-22
2016-08-15
2016-08-08
2016-07-25
2016-07-18
2016-07-11
2016-07-04
2016-06-27
2016-06-20
2016-06-15
2016-06-06
2016-05-30
2016-05-23
2016-05-16
2016-05-09
2016-05-03
2016-04-27
2016-04-11
2016-04-05
2016-03-22
2016-03-15
2016-03-07
2016-02-29
2016-02-23
2016-02-15
2016-01-20
2016-01-11
2016-01-04
2015-12-09
2015-12-01
2015-11-23
2015-11-16
2015-11-09
2015-11-02
2015-10-26
2015-10-19
2015-10-14
2015-10-05
2015-09-29
2015-09-21
2015-09-14
2015-09-07
2015-08-31
2015-07-27
2015-07-20
2015-07-13
2015-07-06
2015-06-29
2015-06-22
2015-06-17
2015-06-09
2015-06-01
2015-05-26
2015-05-18
2015-05-11
2015-05-06
2015-04-27
2015-04-20
2015-04-14
2015-03-30
2015-03-23
2015-03-16
2015-03-09
2015-03-02
2015-02-16
2015-02-09
2015-02-05
2015-01-26
2015-01-21
2015-01-12
2015-01-05
2014-12-29
2014-12-22
2014-12-17
2014-12-08
2014-12-04
2014-11-25
2014-11-17
2014-11-11
2014-11-03
2014-10-27
2014-10-20
2014-10-14
2014-10-06
2014-09-22
2014-09-15
2014-09-08
2014-09-02
2014-08-26
2014-08-18
2014-08-13
2014-08-04
2014-07-28
2014-07-21
2014-07-15
2014-06-25
2014-06-18
2014-06-10
2014-06-04
2014-05-26
2014-05-20
2014-05-13
2014-04-28
2014-04-23
2014-04-11
2014-04-04
2014-03-24
2014-03-20
2014-03-10
2014-03-03
2014-02-24
2014-02-17
2014-02-11
2014-01-28
2014-01-23
2014-01-07
2013-09-23
2013-09-18
2013-08-27
2013-08-20
2013-08-12
2013-07-25
2013-07-22
2013-07-15
2013-07-09
2013-07-02
2013-06-26
2013-06-17
2013-06-10
2013-06-03
2013-05-29
2013-05-20
2013-05-13
2013-05-06
2013-04-29
2013-04-22
2013-04-08
2013-04-03
2013-03-25
2013-03-18
2013-03-11
2013-03-04
2013-02-25
2013-02-18
2013-02-14
2013-02-04
2013-01-28
2013-01-21
2013-01-15
2013-01-02
2012-12-17
2012-12-10
2012-12-03
2012-11-26
2012-11-19
2012-11-12
2012-11-05
2012-10-29
2012-10-22
2012-10-16
2012-10-03
2012-09-24
2012-09-17
2012-09-12
2012-09-04
2012-08-24
2012-08-13
2012-08-06
2012-07-30
2012-07-23
2012-07-09
2012-07-03
2012-06-25
2012-06-18
2012-06-11
2012-06-04
2012-05-26
2012-05-19
2012-05-14
2012-05-07
2012-04-28
2012-04-21
2012-04-14
2012-04-07
2012-04-02
2012-03-24
2012-03-17
2012-03-10
2012-03-03
2012-02-25
2012-02-11
2012-02-04
2012-01-30
2012-01-14
2012-01-07
2011-12-31
2011-12-24
2011-12-17
2011-12-10
2011-12-05
2011-11-26
2011-11-22
2011-11-05
2011-10-31
2011-10-28
2011-10-12
2011-10-08
2011-09-19
2011-09-03
2011-08-29
2011-08-22
2011-08-13
2011-08-08
2011-07-18
2011-07-11
2011-07-05
2011-06-22
2011-06-13
2011-05-30
2011-05-23
2011-05-16
2011-05-09
2011-05-05
2011-04-27
2011-04-18
2011-04-04
2011-03-28
2011-03-21
2011-03-14
2011-03-08
2011-02-28
2011-02-23
2011-02-14
2011-02-07
2011-01-31
2011-01-24
2011-01-11
2011-01-03
2010-12-28
2010-12-21
2010-12-15
2010-12-06
2010-11-29
2010-11-20
2010-11-15
2010-11-01
2010-10-25
2010-09-27
2010-09-06
2010-08-27
2010-08-23
2010-08-16
2010-08-10
2010-08-02
2010-07-26
2010-07-20
2010-07-13
2010-07-05
2010-06-28
2010-06-21
2010-06-11
2010-05-17
2010-05-10
2010-04-16
2010-04-12
2010-03-29
2010-03-12
2010-03-05
2010-02-19
2010-01-29
2010-01-15
2010-01-06
2009-11-27
2009-11-20
2009-11-16
2009-10-28
2009-10-05
2009-09-29
2009-09-07
2009-08-28
2009-08-21
2009-08-20
2009-08-17
2009-08-17
2009-08-14
2009-08-04
2009-07-24
2009-07-13
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-08
2009-07-03
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-30
2009-06-26
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-25
2009-06-23
2009-06-23
2009-06-22
2009-06-15
2009-06-15
2009-06-12
2009-06-11
2009-06-11
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-09
2009-06-01
2009-05-22
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-21
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-19
2009-05-18
2009-05-07
2009-05-04
2009-04-30
2009-04-29
2009-04-29
2009-04-27
2009-04-27
2009-04-22
2009-04-22
2009-04-20
2009-04-17
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-04-15
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-31
2009-03-27
2009-03-23
2009-03-23
2009-03-20
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-18
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-16
2009-03-13
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-12
2009-03-07
2009-03-03
2009-02-27
2009-02-20
2009-02-16
2009-02-16
2009-02-13
2009-02-12
2009-02-12
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-11
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-09
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-02-02
2009-01-23
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-22
2009-01-20
2009-01-16
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-13
2009-01-09
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-07
2009-01-06
2009-01-06
2009-01-02
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-30
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-29
2008-12-23
2008-12-23
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-18
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-15
2008-12-12
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-04
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-12-02
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-26
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-24
2008-11-20
2008-11-20
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-19
2008-11-17
2008-11-17
2008-11-14
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-13
2008-11-11
2008-11-11
2008-11-11
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-10
2008-11-07
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-06
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-05
2008-11-03
2008-10-31
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-30
2008-10-28
2008-10-28
2008-10-28
2008-10-24
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-22
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-21
2008-10-17
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2008-10-15
2006-06-23