2019-03-18

巴西18/19年產量預估下調 大豆期貨連續第二天上漲

芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)大豆期貨周三(3月13日)連續第二天上漲,報9.03美元/蒲式耳,升0.18%。路透社引述交易商稱,主要是出現了一輪溫和的空頭回補。此外,巴西2018/19大豆產量預期下降為豆價帶來升動能。

巴西農業部3月12日在月報當中下調2018/19年度的大豆產量預估,大豆產量預估為1.135億噸,較上年度將減少580萬噸,但此仍將是史上第三高的產量水平。2018/19年度,巴西穀物收成面積預估將達到創新股的6,290萬公頃,較上年度將增加1.9%或115萬公頃。另一方面,USDA報告前瞻亦下調了2018/19年度巴西大豆產量預估。美國農業部將於3月8日(週五美國時間中午)發布3月份供需報告顯示,分析師平均預計2018/19年度巴西大豆產量為1.154億噸,預測範圍在1.13億到1.17億噸。作為對比,美國農業部2月份預測為1.17億噸,上年為1.208億噸。

阿根廷應用氣象諮詢公司專家GermanHeinzenknecht稱,在阿根廷核心農業區的大部分地區,過去幾天出現30到50毫米的降雨(約1.2到2英寸),部分地區的雨量超過了100毫米。近期的降雨意味著大豆單產基本上已經鎖定。分析師稱,經過前段的高溫乾燥天氣後,近來阿根廷大豆主產區迎來降雨,確保大豆豐收。大豆單產潛力已經確定,收穫即將開始。

降雨有助於阿根廷大豆產量達到預期的5300萬噸。去年天氣持續乾旱曾造成大豆減產。布宜諾斯艾利斯穀物交易所首席分析師EstebanCopati稱,兩周里沒有任何降雨,氣溫一直上升。大部分大豆作物處於關鍵生長期,所以這是一場及時雨。上週阿根廷農業產區出現熱浪天氣,導致土壤中的大部分水分蒸發。

需求方面,中國作為全球最大大豆需求國,最近幾年巴西、美國、阿根廷是中國三大大豆進口來源國,其進口量佔大豆進口總量的95%左右。2013年,巴西超越美國,成為中國第一大大豆進口來源國。(在去年4月之前,中國是美國大豆的第一大出口市場)今年前2個月,巴西大豆出口量同比暴增85.2%,達820萬噸。 僅在2月份,巴西大豆的出口量就高達610萬噸,同比翻了一倍,增幅高達112.6%。這樣強勁的大豆出口勢頭在巴西以往多年的歷史上從未出現過。 去年,巴西大豆出口達到了史無前例的8360萬噸,同比增幅達22.7%,連續兩年維持增長態勢。

不過,巴西穀物出口商協會(ANEC)預計,2019年巴西大豆出口不太可能刷新去年的歷史最高記錄。去年出口創紀錄一是因為巴西大豆大豐收,二是中國增加購買。而今年,一方面由於氣候因素大豆產量或有所下滑,另一方面中美貿易摩擦可能得到解決, 國際大豆市場恢復正常,也會導致大豆出口的下降。 巴西穀物出口商協會預計,巴西大豆出口總量今年將降至7300萬噸,同比下降12%。 

美國農業部月報將2018/19年度的美國大豆壓榨量預估較前月上調1,000萬英斗或2%至21億英斗,主要由於國內大豆加工需求增加的影響,自去年9月至今年1月,美國大豆壓榨量累計年增6%至8.976億英斗。受到壓榨需求上調的影響,美國大豆期末庫存預估也因此下調1,000萬英斗至9億英斗。2018/19年度全球大豆產量預估則是下調91.7萬噸至3.601億噸,其中巴西大豆產量預估下調50萬噸至1.16  5億噸,較上年度將下滑2%,建議投資者可於8.92美元/蒲式耳購CBOT(5月)大豆期貨,目標價9.54美元/蒲式耳,止蝕8.72美元/蒲式耳。

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